Survey cutoff times and key swing states

After a grueling, high-stakes election campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Americans will soon — and finally — begin receiving election results from across the country.

The first state elections close at 6 and 7 p.m. ET on November 5, while the final state elections in Hawaii and most of Alaska end at midnight ET.

The most important thing to keep in mind is patience. Social media is quickly flooded with partisans on both sides declaring that this or that county is indicative of the final vote. The reality is that it takes time to assess these things.

Democratic- and Republican-leaning counties — or counties within those counties — may report their results at different rates. Early and mail-in ballots often reflect a different partisan bias than in-person ballots and are also likely to be counted at different speeds, with each state using its own system.

The most important thing to pay attention to is the election calls in the seven swing states that the Harris and Trump campaigns agree will decide a close election. These are, in order of Electoral College votes:

Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).

Don't forget about Congress, too, where Republicans are trying to maintain their razor-thin majority in the House and Democrats are trying to do the same with their 51-49 edge in the Senate. Control of Congress can enable or thwart much of a president's policy agenda. For example, the Senate not only passes laws but also approves the president's decisions regarding judges and the Cabinet.

This is how election day will unfold hour by hour.

6 p.m. ET: First state polls close

Indiana and Kentucky are between two time zones, so it will be another hour before the states close their businesses. Both are expected to end up in Trump's column.

7:00 p.m. ET: The first race calls; Georgia takes the stage

• Florida (eastern time zone region)

• Georgia

• Indiana (Central Time Zone Region)

• Kentucky (central time zone region)

• South Carolina

• Virginia

• Vermont

• New Hampshire (partial)

With voting now complete in every state, it's likely that the media will start calling a few races. In addition to Indiana and Kentucky, South Carolina should also be an easy win for Trump, while Vermont should be a similar win for Harris.

Don't expect an early call Georgiathe first state to close its polls. Use caution when analyzing results until a significant percentage of precincts are reached. Whichever candidate emerges victorious there will have a significant advantage in the Electoral College.

Florida and Virginia were once swing states, but both have moved away from the most competitive status: Florida toward the Republicans and Virginia toward the Democrats. Although Harris isn't spending any time or money in Florida, Senate Democrats are hoping to do well against Florida Sen. Rick Scott. (Note: In the Florida Panhandle, voters in the Central Time Zone will continue to vote for an additional hour.)

Note that New Hampshire law requires polls to remain open until at least 7:00 p.m. ET, but also allows communities to stay open later if they wish. Some close at 7:30 or 8 p.m

7:30 p.m. ET: Arrive in North Carolina

• North Carolina

• Ohio

• West Virginia

Like Georgia, North Carolina is one of the largest swing states on the ballot in this election. Again, avoid jumping to conclusions until you've seen almost every county, as Harris and Trump have support from very different parts of the state. Parts of North Carolina are also still struggling to recover from Hurricane Helene.

North Carolina It's also about a high-profile gubernatorial race rocked by scandal after CNN reported that the Republican nominee, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, made a series of racist, sexist and otherwise offensive comments on a porn website. Robinson denied writing the posts.

Trump's expected victory in Ohio creates additional headwinds for Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who is running for re-election and will rely on the support of at least some Trump voters.

In West Virginia, the state's strong GOP tilt led national Democrats to largely cede the seat to outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin.

8 p.m. ET: All eyes are on Pennsylvania

• Alabama

• Connecticut

• Delaware

• Florida (Central Time Zone Region)

• Illinois

• Kansas (central time zone region)

• Maine

• Maryland

• Massachusetts

• Michigan (Eastern Time Zone Region)

• Mississippi

• Missouri

• New Jersey

• North Dakota (central time zone region)

• Oklahoma

• Pennsylvania

• Rhode Island

• South Dakota (central time zone region)

• Tennessee (Eastern and Central time zones)

• Texas (Central Time Zone Region)

• Washington, D.C

There are many new state results available at this point in the night. And one is sure to be one of the most viewed: Pennsylvaniathe most populous of the seven swing states.

Don't expect quick voting here, however, as Pennsylvania prohibits election officials from processing absentee ballots until Election Day. This could lead to significant delays in determining the winner if the race is close. In 2020, the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for Joe Biden four days after Election Day, giving Biden enough votes to win the presidency.

“Overall, votes cast by mail have tended to favor Democrats since the issue of early voting and mail-in voting became highly politicized in the 2020 election,” the AP noted ahead of the 2024 vote. “That means that in a closely contested contest, the Democratic candidate could take an early lead in the vote count in the first voting reports after the polls close, although the race could become significantly closer as more votes are counted.”

The polling stations also close in most cases Michigan at 8 p.m. ET, putting another of the seven swing states in the spotlight. Both campaigns have spent an enormous amount of time and resources here, and it's another place where those in the race will have to wait until most precincts close when the contest ends to draw meaningful conclusions. Note that some Upper Peninsula counties are on the Central Time Zone and polls will remain open for another hour.

Also keep an eye on it Mainewhich gives two electoral votes to the winner of his state and one electoral vote to the winner of each of his two congressional districts. Harris is expected to win the state, but the rural 2nd District, which stretches across the northern part of the state, is considered competitive.

There are also some important Senate elections at stake here. Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey is running for re-election. Michigan has one open seat. Republicans are hoping that the leadership of a moderate former governor will help them in Democratic-leaning Maryland. And the Democrats are hoping for surprises in two Republican-leaning states: Missouri against Senator Josh Hawley and Texas against Senator Ted Cruz.

8:30 p.m. ET: Another state

Arkansas is friendly territory for Trump.

9 p.m. ET: Polls closed in Arizona and Wisconsin

• Arizona

• Colorado

• Iowa

• Kansas (Mountains time zone region)

• Louisiana

• Michigan (central time zone region)

• Minnesota

• Nebraska

• New Mexico

• new York

• North Dakota (Mountains Time Zone Region)

• South Dakota (Mountains time zone region)

• Texas (Mountains time zone region)

• Wisconsin

• Wyoming

Polls are now closing in two other major swing states: Arizona and Wisconsin.

Along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin is part of the Democrats' “blue wall” strategy, in which Harris could potentially secure a narrow majority in the Electoral College by defeating them. All three are Rust Belt states with strong Democratic organizations, but also areas where Trump has a history of exceeding expectations.

ArizonaIt is now the only border state that both campaigns are competing for, in a race that has included much discussion about immigration and border policy. Pay particular attention to Maricopa County, where most of the state's residents live. Also note that Arizona is among the states that pioneered mail-in voting, and in the past, most Arizonans voted early – either in person or by mail.

Nebraska joins Maine in apportioning its electoral votes by congressional district. Although most of the state is expected to go Republican, the Omaha-based 2nd District is considered competitive and could be significant if the election is close enough.

Democratic Senators Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Mark Kelly of Arizona also face Republican challengers. Nebraska, meanwhile, has an interesting Senate race, with Republican Sen. Deb Fischer being challenged by an independent candidate, labor leader Dan Osborn.

10 p.m. ET: Nevada, the final swing state

The polling stations are now closed Nevadathe last and least populous of the seven swing states. Trump has a hotel on the Las Vegas Strip and believes the state is a perfect fit for his political brand. At the same time, the state's diverse population and strong union culture can give Democrats a boost. Nearly three-quarters of the state's population lives in Clark County, centered in Las Vegas.

Democratic Senators Jacky Rosen from Nevada and Jon Tester from Montana also want to defeat their Republican challengers.

11 p.m. ET: The West Coast

Harris' home state of California has the most electoral votes, but is expected to be an easy win for her.

12 p.m. ET: Final states

There was some speculation that Alaska might be worth watching after a respected local poll showed Harris trailing by just a few points in September. However, it is widely expected that Trump will go for it.

Note that one sparsely populated part of Alaska is in a different time zone and polls close an hour later, at 1 a.m. ET: the western edge of the Aleutian Islands. See also: The last in-person vote in the U.S. will take place on the desolate tundra of Alaska's Aleutian Islands