Gerrit Cole triggers opt-out in deal with Yankees

Right-handed Gerrit Cole has an additional year with the same salary of $36 million as the remainder of the contract, according to ESPN's Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan.

Cole's original contract with the Yanks was for $324 million over nine years, with even salaries of $36 million each season, starting in 2020. Under that contract, he could opt out after five years and the final four years and give up $144 million. The Americans could then set an additional $36 million for 2029 and lift the opt-out. Now that Cole has triggered his opt-out, the Yankees must now effectively decide whether they want Cole back for $180 million over the next five years. If not, Cole will return to free agency.

During the first few years of his contract, Cole continued to play to his usual excellent standards. From 2020 to 2023, he pitched 664 innings and allowed 3.08 earned runs per nine. He struck out 31.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.9% clip and hit grounders at a 41.1% clip. According to FanGraphs calculations, he picked up 15.4 wins above replacement during that time, fifth in the majors behind Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman And Aaron Nola. He won the American League Cy Young last year with a 2.63 ERA over 209 innings.

During this time it seemed pretty obvious how the contract situation would develop. Cole would make the simple decision to trigger his exit, while the Yanks would make the equally simple decision to add the extra year, bringing their total commitment to $360 million over 10 years.

But with developments in 2024, the future path became a little more uncertain. Cole struggled with elbow inflammation during spring training and was sidelined for a while. No structural damage was noted, but he was placed on the 60-day injured list as he underwent his non-surgical rehab. He was eventually able to return to the mound and made his season debut in mid-June.

He was a little shaky at first, with a 6.75 ERA in his first four starts, but from then on his numbers were far more Cole-like. He posted a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts of the year. His strikeout rate of 25.7% wasn't quite up to his usual level, but his walk rate of 6.8% was still quite high. He made another five postseason starts with a 2.17 ERA, helping the Yanks reach the World Series for the first time since 2009.

While Cole has seemed like his old self for months, the Yanks may still need to think about this matter. As seen in MLBTR's Contract Tracker, the largest deal for a pitcher age 34 or older was the five years and $185 million the Rangers gave Jacob deGrom. This deal has not gone well so far, as deGrom required Tommy John surgery and barely played for the Rangers in the first two years of this contract. The Yankees would essentially have to honor this deal to prevent Cole from escaping. As noted, taking the extra year would mean committing to paying Cole $180 million over the next five years, which is just under the DeGrom deal.

Cole's durability record is far better than deGrom's. Cole has thrown nearly 2,000 innings to this point in his career, while deGrom was just over 1,300 when he signed with Texas. Still, Cole has just recovered from a notable absence related to his throwing arm. Most other pitchers in that age group signed shorter contracts with higher average annual values, with Wheeler's most recent contract extension with the Phillies paying $126 million over three years. Max ScherzerHis contract with the Mets was worth $130 million over three years, even though he was a few years older and started that contract at age 37.

The Yankees are faced with the prospect Juan Soto The move to free agency and Cole may mark the departure of a second superstar. Some have argued that the Soto situation was intended to motivate the Yanks to keep Cole just to avoid the possibility of losing two stars after a frustrating loss in the World Series. On the other hand, some have suggested that the Yanks might appreciate having an additional $36 million in salary cap space to lure Soto back to the Bronx.

The latter mindset would leave a big hole in the rotation, but it wouldn't be a terrible group without Cole. The planned rotation would continue to include Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Clarke Smith, Nestor Cortes And Marcus Stroman. If the Yanks let Cole go, they could focus on Soto and return to him later or pursue other starting players. They had expressed interest Blake Snell last winter and he terminates his contract and becomes a free agent again. Burnes, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried and many others. Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and dozens of others may be commercially available.

It's one of the more interesting decisions of the offseason. Most free agent contracts produce the best returns in the early years and become more painful as deals progress. The Yankees have a chance to walk away from their prime and perhaps avoid the downside. However, this would mean they are losing one of the best pitchers in the league. According to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand on X, they have until Monday at 5 p.m. Eastern Time to decide.