Michigan football vs. No. 1 Oregon

Opportunities like this don't come along too often.

After a win over rival Michigan State (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten), Michigan is seeking its first win over a No. 1 team since 1984, when Oregon (8-0, 5-0) moved into the Big Ten comes home on Saturday. The Wolverines are 3-16-1 against the top-ranked team in the country, with their last win coming over 40 years ago against Miami, 22-14.

It will be a tall order for Michigan to get its fourth win against a No. 1 team this weekend. The Wolverines enter this matchup as 14.5-point underdogs over the Ducks, who are back on track after two subpar performances at the start of their season. This will be the sixth meeting ever between Michigan and Oregon. The Wolverines have a 3-2 lead in the series, but the Ducks have won each of their last two games.

Below, Michigan Wolverines on SI Editor Chris Breiler, senior writer Trent Knoop, and contributing writer Matt Lounsberry share their thoughts on the game Two bold predictions, Game previewsAnd Final result predictions.

1. It will be within a touchdown at halftime

Some analysts believe Oregon won't just move into the Big House and get an early win, and I echo that belief. I think the Michigan defense makes it difficult for the Ducks early on, and the game is only a touchdown away as the two teams head to the locker rooms at halftime.

2. Michigan forces two turnovers

Not only does Michigan need to avoid turning the ball over to win this game, but I think the defense needs to force multiple turnovers from the Oregon offense – and I think they're doing it. Michigan's secondary will have to play its best game of the season (by far) to give the Wolverines a chance on Saturday, and I think that results in two interceptions. Whether Michigan can capitalize on those interceptions by scoring points is a different story.

1. Michigan throws for over 200 yards

That probably seems overly bold, but when you think about Oregon's offense, it seems possible. The Ducks have one of the highest-scoring offenses in college football and Oregon can score quickly. This game could go like it did against Texas earlier in the year. If the Ducks get an early lead over Michigan, the Wolverines may have to pivot to try and win the game. If Davis Warren and Alex Orji have to throw the ball a ton, 200 yards is more than possible.

2. Michigan has zero turnover

Turnovers were a big problem for Michigan, especially by air. But last weekend was a welcome change as the Wolverines didn't have to give up once. This could be a different ballgame if Oregon makes Michigan throw the football. But Davis Warren should have more confidence after last weekend, and the coaching staff has talked a lot about playing turnover-free ball, and I think Michigan will play pretty clean for the most part.

1. Kalel Mullings runs for 75 yards for a touchdown

The fifth-year senior posted his lowest production of the season in the win over Michigan State, in which Mullings rushed for just 18 yards on 13 carries. Oregon's defense is strong, but the Ducks showed some vulnerability against the run early in the year. Mullings has garnered some negative headlines this week after he was singled out in the postgame skirmish between the Wolverines and Spartans last week. It feels like there are some ingredients in place to play a big game against the Ducks.

2. Michigan scores first

The Wolverines' defense struggled to open possessions, while their offense didn't get off to quick starts often. I'm going to go all out and suggest that the trend is reversing in this game. Oregon makes the long trip east, and the Big House should be rocking early as it welcomes the No. 1 team in the country. With these factors, Michigan will take an early lead on Saturday.

This game will ultimately be decided by a crucial battle between Oregon's passing attack and Michigan's secondary attack. While we've seen glimpses of the greatness of the Wolverine secondary, it's far more common for this unit to play inconsistently and out of position. There's no question they'll face their biggest challenge of the season on Saturday against the Ducks, and I just don't have enough confidence that they can stop Dillon Gabriel from making big plays through the air – not for four quarters.

Result prediction: Oregon 34, Michigan 17

Anything can happen on any Saturday in college football. We saw it this season, among other upsets, when Vanderbilt beat Alabama. But the Wolverines will need some balls to prevail this weekend. Oregon is the No. 1 ranked team for a reason and the Ducks have a very experienced team with a good quarterback behind center, Dillon Gabriel. The Michigan secondary, who has hit a lot this year, will be tested early and often. If Will Johnson can't play, it could be an even longer day for the maize and blue. If the Wolverines can win this game, it will be because the offense has reached a whole new level and the Michigan defense is playing its best game of the year – while remaining turnover-free. Seems like a tall order for the 2024 Michigan Wolverines.

Result prediction: Oregon 31, Michigan 17

Part of me feels like Michigan will play Oregon tough in this game. Another part knows that if we see UM play the way they did against Texas and Illinois, the Ducks are fully capable of knocking off the Wolverines. To do this, Michigan must use its running game to control the clock and protect the football on offense. Defensively, the Wolverines need their front seven to beat Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, which is difficult given the Ducks' weapons at wide receiver and the speed at which Gabriel gets rid of the ball in the pocket. There's a scenario where this game comes down to the last few possessions, but Michigan hasn't shown me enough this season to predict that in good faith.

Result prediction: Oregon 31, Michigan 17

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