Tornado risk today and Monday

A super-strong tornado outbreak damaged the east side of the Oklahoma City metro and several communities in south/eastern Oklahoma. Several severe storms hit the Permian Basin and eastern New Mexico yesterday. Showers are expected across northwest Texas and Texoma this morning.

Severe thunderstorms become increasingly likely after midday today in the Big Country, northwest Texas, western North Texas and Texoma. It looks like another chaotic day with multiple storms moving in at once and moving generally north/northeast. Some storms will become supercellular, with the threat of large hail, damaging winds and some threat of tornadoes.

We expect the storms to continue to develop through the evening hours and eventually spread further east to the north/northwest side of D/FW and perhaps Ark-La-Tex. Southern Oklahoma will also be a focus. Storm activity may subside for several hours late this evening, but additional storms could develop in northwest Texas early Monday and move northeast/east along the Red River. Several storms with heavy rain may cause local flooding.

Monday could be quite active with severe storms

Monday could be a busy severe weather day with tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain as a dry/cold front moves across the eastern half of Texas. An intermittent line of thunderstorms may occur west of Interstate 35W/35 in Texoma, North Texas and Central Texas by midday.

Some storms within the line may be supercellular, with all types of severe weather possible. Along with isolated storms, the line would move east/northeast across the D/FW Metroplex by early afternoon and into eastern North Texas, Northeast Texas, Ark-La-Tex and East Texas by Monday afternoon. Some storms are likely to produce severe weather.

A line of storms will likely develop Monday evening along a southward-moving cold front from the Hill Country and Central Texas into the Brazos Valley and East Texas. Activity will shift south/southeast over the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Southeast Texas and the Golden Triangle Tuesday morning. Some storms produce strong winds, heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning. If the timing forecast holds true, most of Texas will see inclement weather Tuesday afternoon and night – although gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures would be likely.

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