“Nostradamus” on the US election suggests that Harris is ahead in four swing states

Historian Allan Lichtman has offered an assessment of the state of affairs in the Electoral College, pointing out that Vice President Kamala Harris could win 283 votes, with a lead in four key swing states.

In a livestream posted to his YouTube channel on Thursday, Lichtman said Harris was ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia.

He told it before Newsweek that women — who broadly favor Harris in most swing states — “are well ahead of men in early voting in swing states,” giving the Democratic candidate an advantage in those states.

Lichtman relied on the gender disparity in early voting statistics, saying Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia lean blue.

On the other hand, Arizona and Nevada were trending in the red, he said. The historian rated Pennsylvania a failure.

“My assessment of these states is heavily influenced by the gender gap in early voting. Trump may have further alienated women by claiming to protect them 'whether women like it or not,'” Lichtman said in an email to Newsweek.

Newsweek also emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns outside of normal work hours for comment.

Although Lichtman stressed that he did not officially predict the results and a lot of “guessing” went into the assessment, the American university professor has made a formal prediction about who will win the election based on his system “The Keys to the White.” A house.”

This system is based on 13 keys, all true/false statements, that assess the standing of the incumbent party based on a variety of factors, including the economy, foreign policy and domestic policy. Lichtman has an impressive track record of using this model to choose winners, although his methods are not without criticism.

The 13 keys, as outlined by the historian in a 2012 article Social pedagogy magazine, these are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No main competition: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party's nomination.
3. Incumbent seeks re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the incumbent president.
4. No third party: There is no significant campaign by third parties or independent parties.
5. Strong Short-Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong Long-Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the average growth during the previous two terms.
7. Important policy change: The incumbent government is bringing about major changes in national politics.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent government has been spared from major scandals.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent government suffers no major failures in foreign or military affairs.
11. Significant foreign or military success: The incumbent government achieves great success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic Challenger: The challenging party candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero.

If six or more are incorrect, the incumbent party is likely to lose the election. If five or fewer are wrong, a win is expected. In September, Lichtman officially predicted Harris would win the election using the keys.

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Update 11/01/24, 12:58 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Lichtman.