Donald Trump Leads in “Just One Swing State”: Latest NYT-Siena Poll

Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to Sienna College's final study.New York Times Survey before the election.

Results released Sunday show Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump is leading in Arizona.

Between October 24 and November 2, 7,878 likely voters were surveyed across the seven states, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state.

Newsweek emailed the Trump and Harris campaigns seeking comment.

Sienna College/New York Times is one of America's most trusted pollsters. Aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks it first on its list of 282 based on its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver ranks the company among the top two companies and gives it an A+ grade.

Since the last round NYT/Sienna Polls in the battleground states show momentum has shifted toward Harris in Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led her but where she is now ahead.

In Pennsylvania, polls have risen in favor of Trump. The previous one NYTThe /Sienna poll, conducted between October 7th and 10th, showed Harris leading the Keystone State by 4 points – they are now tied.

In Michigan, the results remained unchanged: The candidates were tied in the previous poll conducted between September 21 and 26, and they remain tied now.

In Wisconsin, Harris maintained her lead and in Arizona, Trump maintained his lead.

In addition to the presidential race, the poll also showed that the race for some Senate seats is getting tighter.

The latest poll showed Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey leading by 5 points, up from 9 in September.

In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads by 4 percentage points, up from 8 in September.

In Arizona and Nevada, Democrats have larger leads, with Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake by five points and Nevada's incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen holding a comfortable nine-point lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown.

Despite the overall strong results of the Democratic Senate candidates in the swing states, these alone will not be enough to maintain the party's majority, as conservative former Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is likely to be replaced by Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia and the Democrat It is Incumbent Jon Tester is unlikely to retain his seat in Montana before a challenge from Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.

Accordingly NYT/Sienna's latest national poll, which polled 2,516 voters between Oct. 20 and Oct. 23, shows the electorate evenly split at 48 percent for Harris and Trump.

Some analysts are calling the 2024 election the closest in American history.