Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. UCLA

Nebraska's football game against UCLA was the worst in the Matt Rhule era.

The loss to Indiana two weeks ago was bad, but the Hoosiers are a good football team that could compete for a Big Ten title. Although UCLA is a decent team with three wins, it is unlikely they will win a bowl game. Nebraska's performance against Ohio State suggested they could win all of their remaining games. The UCLA game makes me wonder if the Huskers will even make it to a bowl.

This game shook my previously unshakable confidence in Rhule's direction for the program. Time is running out for the current team to prove it can lead Nebraska football back to the top, and difficult decisions will almost certainly be required come December.

The late performance told the story of this game. A traditional box score shows the Huskers “won” that aspect of the game, converting 9 of 17 third downs to UCLA’s 6 of 13. The Bruins had a massive advantage in EPA: 6.77 to the Huskers' -8.01. The Blackshirts were able to put Bruins quarterback Ethan Garbers in challenging third-down situations, forcing him to gain an average of 6.4 yards. The Bruins made no problem with that distance, averaging 9.8 yards per play on third down. In contrast, the Huskers managed just 3.1 yards per play on third down.

UCLA's costly mental errors masked the subpar performance of the Huskers' offense. Nebraska only scored points on drives when UCLA called an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. These three penalties alone accounted for 9.48 EPA in Nebraska's favor. This game was an infamous one-point loss thanks to UCLA's careless errors.

I will give some Recognition for the playful performance in this game. Nebraska didn't call for many passing plays that targeted a player near the line of scrimmage. Raiola's 40-yard pass to Jacory Barney was the Huskers' biggest play outside of the UCLA penalty that extended that drive a few plays earlier. I liked the quick runs with Dowdell at full-back. Positioning Heinrich Haarberg as a running back is also a unique ploy that could become a big play in a future game.

However, what was amazing to me was rolling Raiola to the left on a crucial four-and-goal at the five-yard line. The rollout put Raiola in a difficult throwing position. Carter Nelson's route likely would have left him short of the end zone even if the pass had been completed. Neither Isaiah Neyor nor Jahmal Banks were on the field for this game. I would like to see one of them given the opportunity to make a play or draw a penalty instead of relying on two true freshmen to perfectly execute a demanding play.

Nebraska also lacked urgency in the fourth quarter. The game clock often ran 30 seconds before Nebraska snapped the ball. I had that concern at the end of the first half against Illinois, but the Huskers still managed to score, giving them a halftime lead against the Illini. NU offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield could help Raiola read at the line of scrimmage if the offense stopped before the headset turned off and there were 15 seconds left on the game clock.

This game was a missed opportunity for Nebraska. Against Ohio State, the special teams and defense took a huge leap forward compared to the Indiana game. Both units took a step back this week, which is rightfully concerning to fans who want significant improvement in the second year under Rhule.

The Huskers have three games left to change the story of this season, but their woes early in the season will become this team's tragic mistakes later in the year.

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