Who will win the election? Trump falls in prediction markets

With Election Day just two days away, PredictIt now has Kamala Harris at the helm, with a contract that puts her winning price at 54 cents on Sunday, up from 46 cents on Tuesday and 42 cents a week ago. The price of Trump's winning contract is now 51 cents, up from 60 cents on Tuesday.

According to Kalshi, Trump's chances of winning on Sunday were 51%, Harris's 49%. That's a significant drop from Tuesday, when Trump was at 64.6% and Harris was at just 35.4%.

Similarly, Interactive Brokers' new IBKR Forecast Trader put the odds for Trump at 54% on Sunday, compared to 68% on Tuesday. Harris rose as high as 54% on Sunday before falling to 48% later in the day – both up from 37% on Tuesday.

The Harris surge was so dramatic at IBKR that Thomas Peterffy, the founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, released a statement about it on Friday.

“Last night, Kamala Harris made a surprisingly strong comeback on IBKR’s ForecastTrader platform,” he said, noting that an 8-point rise in a day was supported by trading volume of about $40 million.

While skeptics of prediction markets have warned that they are vulnerable to manipulation, he said that was a crime and probably did not lead to the sudden improvement in Harris' odds on IBKR. Instead, Peterffy scaled back the coverage of news events.

According to Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, a turning point occurred last Sunday during Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden. At the time, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean,” sparking a massive backlash that lasted throughout the week.

He told Assets Recently, Trump stated that Trump has suffered a historic meltdown since the rally, which could lead to Harris winning the election.

Harris' prospects were also boosted by the close watch on Saturday's events Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa A poll conducted by Selzer & Co. showed Harris leading Trump among likely voters, 47% to 44%.

That has been reversed since September, when the poll showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris, and could point to growing support for Harris in other parts of the region, such as key swing states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

And on Sunday morning the New York Times/A Siena College poll of battleground states found the race is still close, but last-minute decision makers are swinging in favor of Harris.

Still, the latest twists come after a month of largely positive polling data for Trump, while more than 70 million voters have already cast their ballots.

The latest 538 poll analysis gives Trump a 53 in 100 chance of winning the election, compared to 47 in 100 for Harris, the same as a week ago.

And José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note Friday that a Republican victory in the White House, Senate and House of Representatives is still narrowly favored in the IBKR forecast model.

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