From election fraud to the “Trump factor” and civil unrest: 6 reasons why election night in the USA could go wrong

As the 2024 election approaches, tensions are high as the futures of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hang in the balance. Although US election security officials consider the 2020 election to be “the most secure in American history,” echoes of Trump's claims of a “rigged” result are still being heard loud and clear.

As ballots are counted and results emerge, social media is likely to be plagued by misinformation that echoes previous narratives of voter fraud and election manipulation. Here are five potential pitfalls that could mar the electoral process and destroy democracy as we know it.

Calls for election fraud

Misinformation, false claims and misleading accusations – fueled by the blatant use of artificial intelligence that can make even the most outlandish false claims appear credible – are spreading virally and reaching record highs in the run-up to the US election. Individuals and various groups, including independent, Republican-affiliated organizations and, in some cases, even some Democrats, are collecting and sharing numerous reports of alleged voting problems.

Paul Smith of the Campaign Legal Center explained that fraud is largely a made-up problem. Speaking to USA Today, he emphasized that audits of the 2020 election and the 2022 midterm elections found no evidence of significant voter fraud. Despite this, former President Trump and some Republicans continued to spread false claims. After these claims emerged, a number of states passed new rules saying you need a photo ID to vote and formed teams to look for problems.

Trump had also falsely claimed that mail-in voting leads to fraud, but mail-in voting actually includes strict security measures to prevent this.

The Trump factor

Journalist Andrew Romano identifies the “Trump factor” as a second potential problem on election night. The former president is still refusing to accept his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, having claimed long before the election that he could only lose if the election was rigged. After his defeat, Trump never stopped his claims and continued to insist there was election fraud.

According to Romano, if key battleground states like Pennsylvania are in a tight race come November 5th – just as polls suggest – and initial, partial vote counts show Trump in the lead while Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots are still being processed, Trump will likely to declare themselves the winner again, regardless of the final result. Trump and his supporters may try to persuade election officials in key states not to certify the results, even though they have no authority to do so.

Delays are to be expected in the final result: it can take days

According to the BBC, polls will close at 11:00 p.m. EDT (04:00 GMT) in most states, and later in Hawaii and Alaska. In previous elections, the winner was typically announced shortly after the polls closed in California, followed by a concession speech by the loser.

However, experts believe that it could take days to determine the winner this year because the number of postal votes is higher and the counting may be delayed. Each state has different rules for when to start counting those votes, so a candidate who has an early lead may end up losing when all the ballots are counted.

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Violence or intimidation

There are concerns about voter intimidation and possible violence on Election Day, particularly as former President Trump's campaign continues with plans to deploy more than 150,000 volunteer poll watchers. While these monitors are supposed to ensure a fair vote, voting rights advocates fear their presence could cross the line into unlawful intimidation, potentially deterring voters or disrupting the voting process.

“We need every able-bodied man and woman to join the Army for Trump’s election security operation,” Donald Trump Jr. previously said in a video. “We need your help to monitor them. Not just on election day, but also during early voting and at the counting tables. President Trump will win. Don’t let them steal it.”

Cyber ​​attacks

A big concern on election night is the threat of cyberattacks, which typically get worse during high-voltage events like elections. Hackers from countries including Russia, China, and Iran have reportedly been extremely active throughout the 2024 election cycle, targeting digital accounts related to political campaigns, spreading misinformation, and probing election infrastructure.

Even though 98% of voters, including those in key states, will use paper ballots to reduce the risk of manipulation of electronic votes, cyberattacks could still affect key systems such as those used by the media to report elections tonight.

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Civil unrest

Washington, DC is preparing for the November 5 election and is strengthening its iconic locations to prepare for potential problems. The White House, the U.S. Capitol and Vice President Kamala Harris' home are now all fenced off, including anti-climb barriers. These additional steps are being taken even though the city's police chief said at a news conference that there was no real threat and everything was under control.

But according to polls, many people are worried about what might happen after the election. Not long ago, more than 30 military experts teamed up with local and state leaders at the University of Pennsylvania to run through various scenarios and figure out how to deal with violence or unrest that could arise surrounding the election and a transition of power.