Election betting odds are rising as polls show Harris has momentum

• A new poll showed Kamala Harris with a surprising three-point lead over Trump in Iowa.
• Betting odds on Robinhood and Kalshi narrowed following the news.
• Trump handily won Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Vice President Kamala Harris' betting odds rose overnight after a new poll showed her with a surprising lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa – a state he won handily in both 2016 and 2020.

A Selzer & Co. Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released Saturday showed Harris with a three-point lead in the state.

The results were reflected in rising odds on the betting markets on Sunday morning.

On Kalshi, the popular US forecasting platform, Harris' chances of winning the election have increased from 35% on October 29 to 51% at the time of writing.

Harris' chances of winning the popular vote also increased under Kalshi, rising from a low of about 61% on October 29 to 77% at the time of writing.

The electronic trading platform Robinhood also saw falling ratings ahead of Tuesday's election.

Based on bets on Robinhood, Trump had a 66% chance of winning on October 29, while Harris had a 39% chance. But at the time of writing, the probability for Trump was 51% and for Harris 50%.

Betting markets have benefited from this year's presidential election. Kalshi won over $100 million betting on who would win in October alone.

Meanwhile, Polymarket, another prediction market not available to U.S. residents, saw more than $2 billion in U.S. election betting volume on its platform last month, The Block reported.

The Iowa poll polled 808 likely voters between Oct. 28 and Oct. 31, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

The results marked a significant shift from September, when the same poll showed Trump with a four-point lead.