Why these are the five (or six) states to watch on election night

CNN
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The 2024 presidential election is not a race for student council president.

And not just because one of the candidates is 60 years old (Kamala Harris) and the other is about two years shy of 80 (Donald Trump). That's because, as Democrats Hillary Clinton and Al Gore know, the national popular vote doesn't decide the winner.

The only thing that matters is getting 270 electoral votes through the Electoral College. If you know the winners in these five states this year — Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and perhaps a sixth, Arizona — you know which candidate made it.

Why are there these five or six states? They have all seen by far the closest votes and are worth at least 10 electoral votes each.

Let's start with some basics: There are 226 electoral votes in the states – along with Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District and Washington, DC – where Harris had a clear lead over Trump. 219 electoral votes now appear to be leaning toward the former president.

We eliminate these places because in almost all cases one of the candidates is ahead by 5 points or more.

Now there is always the possibility that another state will shock us. If Ann Selzer's Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released last weekend is accurate, Iowa could be that state. The poll found Harris at 47% compared to Trump at 44% – a result within the margin of error in a state where the former president won by high single digits in both 2016 and 2020.

If this poll is even remotely accurate, there's a good chance Harris will do well enough in the battleground states to easily win at least 270 electoral votes.

Looking at these battleground states, Harris has an easier path than Trump to getting to 270 electoral votes. She could win by unifying Michigan (15 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Wins in these three “blue wall” states would bring them to exactly 270.

The poll numbers in these three states are close. An average of recent polls shows that Harris has the smallest advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin (about one point) and that the two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania. (Other averages could put it a little further ahead or even a little behind in these states.)

It's no surprise that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are Harris' top states among the remaining key states. These are the three states Clinton lost by the narrowest of margins in 2016, and all three helped propel Joe Biden to the top in 2020. Harris also appears to be doing better with white voters than voters of color compared to Biden's performance in 2020. These states have the highest percentage of white voters among the currently battleground states.

But polls are not perfect. Trump could easily win one or more of these three states. Let's say he wins one of them. Harris could still reach 270 electoral votes by adding another state to her column.

No state has had more consecutive presidential elections decided by less than 5 points in four consecutive cycles than North Carolina. And the Tar Heel State should be pretty competitive again. According to an average of recent polls, Trump currently appears to have a lead of about one point in North Carolina.

What is important is that the state has 16 electoral votes. That means Harris could lose either Michigan or Wisconsin and easily slot in at North Carolina.

The same applies to Georgia. The Peach State has 16 electoral votes. Why is North Carolina ahead of Georgia in terms of importance to me?

After all, Biden won Georgia in 2020, while he lost North Carolina to Trump by one point. The simple explanation is that the polls were tighter in North Carolina this time. According to the average of polls in Georgia over the past few weeks, Trump is ahead by 1 to 2 points.

And because the Democratic base in each of these Southern states relies heavily on black and college-educated voters, the likelihood that a voting error in one state will be felt in another state is high. In other words, Harris would probably have a better chance of winning North Carolina than Georgia.

However, we don't know for sure whether Georgia will vote to the right of North Carolina. And if Harris loses Wisconsin along with Michigan or Pennsylvania, she would need both southern states to get 270 electoral votes.

You'll notice that I didn't talk about Arizona (the sixth state I previously teased) or Nevada (a battleground state where the current polls are very close).

In Arizona's case, the reason is a combination of two factors: the closeness of the polls and the number of electoral votes. Trump's strongest state in the election polls was Arizona. He averages about 2 points ahead of Harris. That's within all margins of error, but it still makes the state a little less appetizing for the vice president.

Additionally, Arizona has 11 electoral votes. Michigan and Pennsylvania both have more. If Harris were to lose any of those votes, an Arizona replacement would not be enough to get her to 270 electoral votes. They would need one more state plus Arizona.

At least Arizona has more electoral votes than Wisconsin. However, the same cannot be said of Nevada, which only has six electoral votes.

While I can imagine scenarios in which Nevada would determine the winner, there would be few of them. Even though the polls in the Silver State are close (within a point), the electoral math is such that only in a rare scenario would Nevada really make a difference.

Of course, knowing how crazy our politics have been, we can't ignore the electoral map. But the bottom line is that there will most likely be five states in this election…or maybe six.