French whales are betting on Trump just for the money

In an interview with the Wall Street JournalThe so-called whale referred to himself as “Théo” and said he only bet on Trump for one reason.

“My intention is just to make money,” he said.

After questions arose about large pro-Trump trades on the platform, Polymarket reached out to the French whale behind the accounts but did not reveal his identity, saying only that he had “extensive trading experience and a background in financial services.”

The trader's handful of big bets skewed the election odds in favor of Trump, the magazine reported last month, raising fears of market manipulation that could change voters' perceptions of the race.

But Théo denied such motives and said that magazine in an email: “I have absolutely no political agenda.”

He also said he placed the Polymarket bets with his own money, which he said made up the majority of his liquid assets. The outlet could not verify whether this is true or not. A Polymarket spokesman did not immediately respond AssetsPlease comment.

Using several different accounts at Polymarket, Théo increased his massive Trump bet through a series of small transactions that he said were designed to keep the price of his bets from increasing so he could get a better deal.

For example, over 450 bets ranging from $5 to tens of thousands of dollars were placed on the trader's Theo4 account in 10 hours last week that Vice President Kamala Harris would not win the presidential election.

Polymarket has been cited by mainstream media outlets in recent months as an alternative to traditional polls, with some election watchers arguing that prediction markets are more likely to reflect an accurate picture of the race because people are investing real money in their bets.

Still, Polymarket is not available to American users and was fined by the CFTC in 2022 for “offering over-the-counter, event-based binary options contracts.” Two separate investigations by blockchain companies also found that a large portion of trading volume on Polymarket could potentially be attributed to “wash trading,” a form of market manipulation in which traders repeatedly buy and sell stocks to falsely reflect market volume and activity increase. Assets reported.

“Polymarket’s terms of service expressly prohibit market manipulation,” a Polymarket spokesperson previously said in a statement Assets. “We strive to provide users with the fairest analysis possible, and our transparency allows the market to decide.”

If Théo's Trump bets work out, he could more than double his money, raking in around $80 million magazine. If Harris wins, he could lose most of his money or, worse, his entire stake.

Théo said that when he was new to election betting, he bet heavily on Trump because he believed the Republican candidate's electoral chances were being underrated in mainstream polls. He pointed to polls from 2016 and 2020 that were well below Trump's vote totals and the idea that some people don't want to publicly support Trump. Polls from the New York Times/Siena College and Reuters/Ipsos show Trump and Harris in a dead heat with just days until Election Day.

The magazine described Théo as a man with a “short, neatly trimmed beard” who wore a gray Nike sweatshirt and had a slight accent when speaking English. He said he previously lived in the United States and traded for banks. The French whale also said he did not want to give his full name because his friends and children did not know about his enormous wealth.

While Théo was confident about Trump's chances in his interview with the US government magazinehe nervously admitted that the political winds can change in an instant.

“A surprise can always happen,” he said.

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