The US vote is unlikely to revive relations with Türkiye

The outcome of Tuesday's high-profile U.S. election is unlikely to have much of an impact on tenuous relations between Washington and Ankara, although chemistry between the two presidents could help, experts say.

The closeness of the 1990s, when the US and Turkey viewed each other as indispensable allies, is long gone.

After a long period of soul-searching and crisis, the two NATO allies have emerged as an uneasy if formulaic alliance, agreeing to disagree on many issues while keeping dialogue open.

“Today it looks like both have decided to agree on some issues, disagree on others and look for areas of cooperation,” Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told AFP.

Those areas include Africa, “where Turkey has built influence, and Muslim Eurasia, where Turkey has historical influence and where both could work together,” he said.

But many problems have marred relations.

In 2019, Washington removed Ankara from its F-35 fighter jet program in retaliation for Turkey's decision to acquire an advanced Russian missile defense system.

Turkey has long harbored a grudge against Washington's alliance with a Kurdish militia to fight Islamic State insurgents in Syria.

And Ankara's binary foreign policy choices have infuriated Washington, particularly its relations with Russia and China and its refusal to join Western sanctions against Moscow.

– A bridge too far? –

In a Brookings commentary, Rich Outzen said U.S.-Turkey relations have always had their difficulties, but now it feels like things are too complicated to resolve.

“A view has taken hold in Washington based on the premise that it may not be worth resolving US-Turkey tensions,” he wrote.

“According to this view, Washington has little to gain when it comes to Turkey's concerns, Ankara cannot or will not do business in good faith, or has taken positions so inconsistent with U.S. and Western interests that there is no It makes sense to try.”

Outgoing US President Joe Biden's reluctance to speak to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not helped.

Biden fell into disgrace when he called Erdogan an “autocrat” in an interview with The New York Times before his 2020 election.

During his term in office, Biden did not visit Turkey or host Erdogan.

A White House meeting scheduled for May has been postponed.

The situation eased when Ankara lifted its veto on Sweden's NATO membership and Washington approved the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in January.

But that momentum has stalled as the rift between Erdogan and Biden over Israel's behavior in the Gaza war deepens.

Turkish officials won't say who they would most like to win.

However, some experts say Donald Trump, who served from 2016 to 2020, could be better given the Republican candidate's personal relationship with Erdogan.

-'No positive memories'-

From a broader perspective, some believe it would be “more beneficial” for Turkey if Democrats remained in power in the United States, foreign policy analyst Serkan Demirtas said.

“Proponents of a Kamala Harris-led government argue that the Trump era has left no positive memories in Turkish-American relations,” he told AFP.

“The deep crises and Trump’s attacks on the Turkish economy have put Ankara in a very difficult situation.”

In 2018, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Turkey's justice and interior ministers over the detention of a U.S. pastor, causing the Turkish lira to fall to historic lows.

And Trump's support for Israel could spell trouble as the Middle East teeters on the brink of all-out conflict.

“A possible Trump victory is seen as risky for Ankara given the growing threat of an Israeli-Iranian conflict,” Demirtas said.

In an interview published in the Hürriyet newspaper on Sunday, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the result of the US vote could exacerbate regional tensions.

“Depending on the outcome of the US election, Netanyahu’s expansion strategy in the region could increase,” he said, apparently alluding to a Trump victory.

When the billionaire businessman was in office, he maintained a personal relationship with Erdogan, who visited the White House in 2017 and 2019.

Trump agreed to visit in 2018 but never followed through.

Although the “chemistry between the presidents” – or lack thereof – would likely impact future relationships, it is unlikely that it would change the terms of the relationship, Cagaptay said.

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