Opinion | One Democratic and one Republican pollster agree: This is the fault line that will decide the election

You've probably heard a lot about the gender gap in presidential politics. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are two completely different candidates, and that has made the gap so wide that this election has become a battle between the sexes. What else is there to know?

A lot. And most importantly, in modern presidential politics, the gender gap has never been larger, but it becomes especially large when we break down gender by education level.

We are truly looking at two different Americas when we look at the views of non-college-educated men and college-educated women. They are at opposite ends of the spectrum politically and experience essentially different economies. Therefore, they place particular emphasis on different character traits and themes.

Let's take a closer look. Women with college degrees, who tend to be more financially secure than other women, cite abortion as one of the top decision-making issues for their choice, while women and men without degrees are more likely to focus on issues that affect their daily finances or security. While inflation affects everyone, it hits hardest voters without college degrees who feel like they are falling behind, especially now that the unemployment rate among those without a college degree has risen.

Our research shows that economic issues are important to many men without a college degree, and they respond strongly to populist messages that seek to acknowledge their fear, sense of loss and resentment.

Additionally, these two groups consume media in completely different ways, which affects what they see and hear. Men — even those without college degrees — often spend time on X and Reddit, and many listen to podcasts and YouTube personalities focused on gaming, sports and politics. Women use TikTok, Instagram and Facebook more often. Many seem to be more focused on content about personal growth, true crime, and style.

Given the different priorities and worldviews of these two groups, it makes sense that they would have different voting patterns, and the presence of a woman on the Democratic electoral roll has only reinforced this. Recent Pew Research Center polls show that men without college degrees choose Mr. Trump by a 55 percent to 39 percent margin. For college-educated women, the situation is almost the opposite, favoring Ms. Harris 61 percent to 34 percent. By Election Day, the gap could be even greater; it could be the largest in history.

This is not a new trend. For years, college-educated women have consistently voted for Democrats at high levels. But the divergence between men without a college degree and women with a college degree is expected to exceed even 2016 levels this year.

Mr. Trump's appeal to men without college degrees is one reason for this shift. Before 2016, the gap between college-educated women and non-college-educated men was not that wide. But while Joe Biden made inroads among men without a college degree in 2020, winning 5 percent more votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016, current support for Ms. Harris among men without a college degree has almost fallen back to Ms. Harris. Clinton's 2016 ratings. This could certainly be due in part to gender bias; Men without college degrees tend to be less open to the idea of ​​women in leadership positions. One study found that men without college degrees are the least confident that a woman has what it takes to run a large American company (78 percent are confident compared to 91 percent of women with college degrees). Our research suggests they worry about whether women are strong enough, can be respected by foreign leaders, and are able to boost production.

This campaign in particular shows that both parties are struggling with key demographics. Years ago, Democrats could count on the support of male union members, but Mr. Trump is increasingly winning over those voters — not only because of his direct, emotional appeals to their fears and values, but also because Democrats have struggled to establish a convincing solution spreading a populist economic message or penetrating the media ecosystem consumed by men without college degrees.

Mr. Trump's running mate, JD Vance, appears to have a particularly strong appeal to some of these working-class voters. “More and more Republicans Are the party of the working and middle classes,” said Mr. Vance, whose working-class family background could be a powerful tool in winning over those non-college-educated men who turned to Mr. Biden in 2020, particularly white ones.

As for Ms. Harris, she particularly appeals to educated women. Republicans used to be stronger than Democrats among college-educated women, but that began to change in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan. Contemporary research found that educated women were more secular and progressive on social issues than other voters of the time. They also supported government programs to provide a safety net and opportunities for all (sound familiar?). They opposed Reagan's tax cuts and deregulation and feared war. But many remained loyal to the Republican Party into the 2000s as part of the “Security Mom” coalition. We saw an echo of this in 2022, when Republican candidates in New York and elsewhere managed to exploit security concerns to win over enough of these women to prevail on Election Day.

Ms. Harris was able to use abortion rights to bring back some college-educated women who might otherwise have remained with the Republicans. She has previously defended reproductive rights and visited swing states this year to talk about abortion. Early in her campaign, she focused on abortion rights, promising to restore the rights enshrined in Roe v. Wade enshrined rights and organized events in contested states dedicated to the issue. Women with college degrees were already a core base for Ms. Harris and the Democratic Party, but these moves helped increase their support among women of all ages. She and her campaign know that to offset the men without college degrees that Mr. Trump wants to attract, she must register and get voters who support abortion rights voting.

While it may seem impossible for a candidate to appeal to both non-college-educated men and college-educated women, there are areas where policies and messaging could bridge this gap.

For example, a populist message could attract more non-college-educated men without alienating college-educated women, since anti-business sentiment is widespread among voters across the political spectrum and can raise concerns about both economic issues and freedom from control. Any party could exploit this feeling.

Both groups appear to want investment in public education and job skills training. Many in both groups fear that the next generation will not be as well off as the previous one. Many want clean air and water and are concerned about pollution. According to our data, men without college degrees tend to preserve natural areas for recreational purposes such as hunting, while women with college degrees are particularly concerned about climate change. Both groups seek greater respect and power, our research shows, and both view politics as a zero-sum game. It seems unlikely that the divide between these two groups will change before Election Day, but for either party to bridge the gap in the long term, it must work to appeal to both groups.

The story of this election may well be the gender gap between Americans who attended college and those who did not. As the candidates consolidate support among their base, it appears nearly impossible for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump to bridge the gap between college-educated women and non-college-educated men. The big question for America going forward is: Can these two groups be brought back together after an election campaign that only drove them further apart?