Turkey is looking ahead to the US presidential election campaign, which could shake up mutual relations

Erdogan avoided commenting on the US election, but Ankara sees the result of the November 5 vote as crucial for Turkish-American relations.

Each of the contenders, Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, are expected to take markedly different approaches to Türkiye's longtime leader.

“During the past Trump presidency, the political relationship between Erdogan and Trump was strong at the highest levels,” said Sinan Ulgen, head of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul think tank.

Relations with President Joe Biden were significantly less friendly. However, if Harris wins, Ulgen believes the relationship with Erdogan will be much more superficial.

Personal time

During his 2017-21 presidency, Erdogan met with Trump nine times, including during a state visit to Washington.

In contrast, he met Biden only briefly on the sidelines of international summits, with U.S.-Turkish relations taking place primarily at the foreign minister level.

“Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and Biden is the only US president who has refused to meet him in an official capacity, neither in the US capital nor in the Turkish capital,” says Serhat Güvenc, a professor for International Relations from Kadir in Istanbul Hat University.

“For Erdogan, talks between heads of state and government are the key to achieving his goals. And he probably thinks, deep down, that he can sort out a lot of things through personal contacts, connections, or personal involvement.”

Such interaction, especially with the most powerful person in the world, is also seen as crucial to Erdogan's status at home.

“It is very important for his reputation and legitimacy at home,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

“He built a personalized system, but also convinced voters, especially his base, that he was a consistent leader, that Turkey was rising, that he was very important, that he was the equal of the US president and the Russian president “That everyone is.” I look up to Erdogan.

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Lack of chemistry?

Aydintasbas questions how easy it would be for Erdogan to build a relationship with Harris, even if she were willing to engage more directly than Biden.

“I can’t imagine what kind of chemistry Harris and Erdogan would have. They don't have similar backgrounds. “To be honest, it's difficult to imagine the two developing a very close personal relationship,” says the analyst.

Erdogan has often spoken warmly about his relationship with Trump – despite being sanctioned during his time in the White House over the imprisonment of an American pastor, which led to the Turkish lira's plunge in 2018.

Trump even once promised to “totally destroy and obliterate” Turkey’s economy after Turkey threatened to attack U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces.

“We have memories of the threats and sanctions,” warns Murat Aslan from the government-affiliated Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara.

Citing the 2018 crisis, Aslan said: “I think actions are more important than words.”

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High risk candidate

The Middle East is another potential sticking point.

Trump is calling for more support for Israel in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and analysts say differences could arise again between U.S. and Turkish leaders.

“Trump’s approach to the Middle East and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could actually increase tensions in the Middle East to the point where a regional war could become inevitable,” warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund.

“So yes, a Trump presidency offers Turkey many opportunities – but with a very high risk.”

Although there has been little direct contact between Biden and Erdogan, Turkish-American relations have shown signs of improvement in recent months.

As the two NATO allies increasingly cooperate and manage their differences better, Aydintasbas says there are advantages to both candidates for Ankara.

“A Kamala Harris government would mean more continuity, but also the promise of stability in Turkish-American relations,” she says. “Whereas Trump is so unpredictable that one day it could be very good, one day it could be very bad.”

As the war rages on in the Middle East, Trump's unpredictability remains a risk for Ankara – but Erdogan will likely still covet the opportunity to renew his relationship with the US strongman.