Your kickoff on Monday: The Red Bulls deliver an MLS surprise for the ages

Red Bulls upset Columbus, Seattle advances

In one of the most shocking results in playoff history, New York edged Columbus in a shootout, defeating the Crew for the second straight year and advancing to the Eastern Conference semifinals. They face the winner of Cincinnati-New York City. Meanwhile, out West, Seattle was taken to penalties by Houston for the second game in a row. They are waiting for the winner of LAFC-Vancouver.

The Whitecaps scored two goals within the first 15 minutes to secure a 3-0 win over LAFC. The series now returns to LA for Game 3. Kickoff is scheduled for Friday evening at 11:00 p.m. ET (MLS Season Pass).

Higher seeds have never felt less safe. Let's discuss it.

If you had asked me to rank every match in the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs in order of probability of surprise, this might have been the last one. It's not just that the Red Bulls are known for their lack of playoff success, and it's not just that they were playing against a team that made every final possible last year. That's largely because New York averaged 0.67 points per game over the final nine games of the season. Only Chicago had worse form after the League Cup.

Things don't get much better when you look at what the Red Bulls did after the middle of the season. They scored just 1.06 points per game during that period, the worst mark of any playoff team.

Well, for one thing, like a top-three surprise in MLS history. Unlike some other people who have watched MLS since the Tampa Bay Mutiny, I have no idea of ​​the deep lore, but I'm hard-pressed to remember a more shocking result.

However, we had spoken a few times about how the Red Bulls' underlying numbers suggested they were actually much better than their record. We had talked a few times about how a healthy Emil Forsberg could be the missing ingredient for this team. We never considered that all this would mean they could last three games with the Crew.

But is it fair to say that disastrous run after the League Cup? They averaged 1.66 expected points per game during that span. Only Portland, Orlando and Columbus had better base numbers. The second half of the season? They averaged 1.64 expected points per game. Only LAFC had better underlying numbers.

The problem was that this team had given us no reason to believe them. That's not just true this year, they had outstanding underlying numbers last year too. It didn't mean much. And it hadn't meant much for half a season. Even when Forsberg returned after an extended absence, it wouldn't have been rational to think that this team would suddenly have the power to defeat an all-time great MLS team.

For a moment it really seemed like they wouldn't. When the crew scored late to equalize, everyone thought: That's so Metro. It was also extremely Columbus. There were no surprises. But the penalty shootout had a few surprises in store. The Crew wanted to put this behind them and bring this series back to Columbus, but Carlos Coronel came up big with a save. Then he did it twice more. The Red Bulls have somehow overcome their demons against a team that refuses to die.

That doesn't mean they'll win the MLS Cup for the first time or anything, but we won't deny any Red Bulls fan the catharsis of this moment. In any case, for a while they can sit back and enjoy being on the other side of a Metro moment.

In the meantime, the crew must perform an autopsy. I'll be honest: I'm not sure we'll learn anything other than “Sometimes the ball goes in.” But that doesn't change the fact that we may have just seen the door open to one of the most formidable teams of all times closes. What if this was the last we saw of Cucho Hernández? What if this was the last we see of Wilfried Nancy? There is a small but real chance that this offseason will be a turnaround for Columbus. This possibility always existed. Now it just exists with a much more disappointing ending than expected.

Finally someone scored! It happened to be Cristian Roldan both times!

It only took 177 minutes between these two for someone to finally find the net. And that probably only happened because Houston was reduced to 10 men after a bizarre sequence in which Héctor Herrera was ejected from the field for spitting in the direction of a referee.

Thanks to an own goal from Roldan, Houston still found its way back into the game. But in the end they ran out of luck. Seattle advanced on penalties and that was it for the Dynamo for the year. Herrera's red card caused a short exit.

However, Seattle survived. In the next round they will face the winner of LAFC-Vancouver. At some point, they're going to have to figure out at least a few things on offense if they want to keep moving forward.

I guess the Whitecaps heard you (me) talking nonsense. Full credit for the fact that they have already done their job twice this postseason with their backs against the wall. This isn't their typical MO, but it seems to be a “Caps” site that's structured a little differently. They turned this game on its head from the start and didn't look back. In two games in which they were on the verge of elimination, they had a combined score of 8-0 in their favor.

It's a good team that seems to have found some rhythm in the postseason. LAFC is in real danger here. They're not playing badly, but they're not playing their best ball either. It doesn't help that Olivier Giroud is still just there. Their “season change” summer signing is still looking for his first MLS goal.

The Whitecaps have a real chance to pull off the biggest MLS upset since last night. Still, if they pull it off, it would be one of the most remarkable results in MLS history. All it takes is a draw and a penalty shootout. They are more than ready for this and definitely seem fed up with the narrative around them. A good team with a chip on their shoulder is a scary thing.

Good luck out there. Surprise some people.