Crypto-based prediction platform shows declining odds for Donald Trump

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are entering the final days of their race for the White House. Tesla billionaire Elon Musk warns of a “financial emergency”.

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Trump, who recently declared himself “crypto president,” saw his odds of winning on crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket increase through October, reaching a high of 67%.

Now, with investors panicking over the Federal Reserve, Trump's chances of winning are in free fall, trending toward a 50/50 divide between Trump and his rival Harris in the Democratic Party.

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Trump's chances of winning at Polymarket, which uses the stablecoin pegged to the USDC dollar to facilitate trading but is not available to U.S.-based users, fell to around 54% over the weekend, just two days before Tuesday's election .

Harris has seen her odds rise from 33% to 45% as bettors increasingly bet on her winning the White House, according to a poll by highly respected Iowa pollster Ann Selzer Des Moines Register showed Harris leading Trump among likely voters by three points, although the poll showed no clear frontrunner in the race despite Trump winning the state in 2016 and 2020.

On rival prediction platform Kalshi, which launched crypto deposits via USDC last week and is open to US users, the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed to just four percentage points.

Kalshi users put Trump's probability of victory at 52%, while Harris has a 48% chance of winning the White House, down from 65% to 35% in Trump's favor earlier this week.

Unlike polls, prediction platform odds are not voter surveys, but rather an open market that allows users to bet on the expected outcome of events of all kinds, from elections to pop culture and sports.

At Polymarket, just over $3 billion has been bet on the outcome of the US presidential election since January, with Trump consistently the favorite among users, who are widely believed to be younger, male and interested in crypto.

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A French-based Polymarket user has bet $30 million on Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election Wall Street Journal He said he was not trying to influence the vote and that his “intent was just to make money.”

Crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket has been growing in popularity in recent months, with the crypto community embracing a successful use case for the technology.

Interest in Polymarket surged over the summer after users bet heavily that President Joe Biden would drop out of the race in early July, weeks before Biden withdrew from the election.