Harris sees a swing vote increase over Trump on election night

Vice President Kamala Harris has an 8-point lead over former President Donald Trump among swing voters, according to Impact Social, a company that specializes in social media sentiment analysis.

The report analyzes 40,000 online discussions and shows that Harris' lead reflects a slight favoritism among independents that reflects concerns about Trump's style rather than strong support for Harris.

“On the positive side of Harris, we consistently observed a small but notable amount of discussion among right-leaning swing voters that suggested they were leaning toward her, while similar conversations in favor of Trump were rare,” the report said.

The report covers sentiment from October 31 to November 4, 2024 and finds Harris' net sentiment score is -9 – a significant improvement from the start of the race. If this trend continues, Impact Social predicts Harris could become the next president.

“Our conclusion is simple: Independents favor Harris, and if this is reflected in turnout, she will be America’s 47th president,” the report predicts.

Impact Social notes that Harris' recent message about the risks of a Trump presidency has resonated with swing voters who call Trump a “threat to democracy,” a “fascist” and accuse him of pushing a “dark agenda.” .

“This was achieved by moving from the 'joy' strategy to emphasizing the perceived dangers of a Trump presidency,” the report said.

Trump's stance on issues such as abortion, immigration and transgender rights have also contributed to negative perceptions among independents.

However, the report admits that Trump is in a slightly better position than he was four years ago, making the choice of the “lesser of two evils” due to the unpopularity of Harris himself even more evident. While most experts agree that Trump had a disappointing performance in the televised debate against Harris in September, his poll numbers have risen 10 points since the televised event.

Despite Harris's sentiment lead, Impact Social raises concerns about voter turnout, drawing comparisons to the 2020 election, where swing voters chose Joe Biden out of dislike of Trump rather than support for him.

“In 2020, we said the polls were wrong, there would be no landslide for Biden because swing voters didn’t really like him, they just hated Trump,” the report said.

Harris faces a similar challenge, with her modest lead based more on anti-Trump sentiment than strong enthusiasm for her.

The report concludes that Harris' reference may be misleading, calling it “an illusion.” Impact Social warns: “Harris is not preferred to Trump; she is simply “liked less” and emphasizes that for many independents this election is the “lesser of two evils,” raising doubts about whether her lead will translate into actual votes.