Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is expected to become Rafael

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 remains a disorganized system with maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour. Thunderstorm activity is not yet sufficiently organized to meet the criteria of a tropical cyclone, but further development is expected and within the next 12 hours or so it is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael.

The official forecast cone continues to show PTC 18 strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba. Dry air and wind shear are expected to cause some weakening once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. However, a hurricane is still expected to develop through Thursday.

The center of the storm will remain off the Gulf coast, but it will be close enough that showers and thunderstorms could occur on the Sunny Coast by midweek. The exact timing and severity of any impacts are still uncertain, but the worst weather is currently expected to continue into Wednesday night and Thursday.

Significant wind and storm surge threats from this system are very unlikely based on the current forecast, but given the disorganized nature of this system, developments are subject to change over the next few days. The most recent cone has moved slightly away from the coast, but you should still be prepared for it to approach the Sun Coast.

After entering the Gulf, the system is expected to gradually weaken as it moves northwest before making landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast, although this portion of the forecast remains very uncertain.

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