NBA Betting Tips: RJ Barrett, Cade Cunningham Stats and Player Props

RJ Barrett and Cade Cunningham stats

Since 2022, the NBA has decided to take Election Day off to increase voter turnout. That's why we're bringing every team into action tonight. After a quiet Sunday, it's a great day for basketball, especially because there's also a hint of college basketball tonight.

The news of the day comes from Phoenix, where Paul George will make his debut for the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid – who got into an altercation with Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes – will not play tonight.

It hasn't been reported whether George will be on a minutes restriction, but it's clear he won't have a full workload tonight against the Suns. At least the betting market seems to think so. Phoenix was the overnight favorite by 4.5 points and is currently -7 overall. George also has some very muted stat lines in the player prop market. His total score is 17.5 points.

This means that this column will have a different look in the future. Every Monday and Friday I will be analyzing some of the different betting trends in the NBA. What we learned over the weekend and what we saw in a week of action.

Zach Cohen will continue to do his excellent work every day, and you can always find NBA betting from me, Cohen, and the other VSiN contributors on our tips page.

RJ Barrett's dominance

The Toronto Raptors may be in the headlines today because their “global ambassador” Drake feuded with Sacramento Kings guard DeMar DeRozan, but they should be in the spotlight in betting circles for an entirely different reason.

RJ Barrett went crazy in the win over Sacramento on Saturday. The Raptors guard scored 31 points on 10 of 26 shooting, grabbed nine rebounds and provided six assists. Barrett scored or assisted on Toronto's last nine points in regulation. Barrett exceeded market expectations for him that day, but this was not an isolated incident.

Scottie Barnes will be out for at least three weeks with a fractured eye socket. With him on the bench were Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk. Toronto was hit by injuries early on, and as a result the number of ball-handlers and scorers was reduced to one: Barrett.

In the three games since Barnes' injury, Barrett has a usage rate of 35.5%, a rate comparable to Luka Doncic's rate for the season (36.2%). The Raptors guard averaged 31.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 8.7 assists on 51.5% shooting from the floor. Due to injury, Toronto has next to no one trusted to run its offense, so Barrett has benefited, and so have bettors.

Last Wednesday the Raptors played the Hornets in Charlotte. Barrett's points, rebounds and assists began at 32.5 but closed at 30.5 in most shops. Barrett finished the night with a total of 43 points, rebounds and assists and has surpassed that number in every game since. The market has adjusted, and its forecast for tonight is a consensus of 35.5 (as of this morning), but given its usage, one could argue that the adjustment is not enough.

Of the three statistical categories, assists are the one that stands out the most for Barrett. Last season, he averaged 4.1 per game in a Raptors uniform. In this new role, he assisted on 37.1% of all baskets on the floor. According to NBA tracking data, he averaged 13.3 potential assists per game. In his first game of the season, his assist prop was 3.5, and in games since – including Monday against Denver – that number has been as high as 5.5. To mention Doncic again – similar usage rate and worse assist rate – his number has fallen way to excess at 7.5.

However, Barrett's run here appears to have an expiration date. Once Quickley returns from injury – which appears to be on the cards – his usage rate will drop and support options will dwindle. This is a trend that is due to a change in workload and will be felt by other players as the season progresses as teammates suffer injuries. It's one of the player prop angles worth betting on consistently until it runs dry.

Cade Cunningham's expanding bag

Detroit hasn't gotten off to the best start this season, but their franchise cornerstone has.

In seven games, Cade Cunningham averaged a career-best 24.1 points and 6.9 assists. Both his overall shooting percentage (49.3%) and 3-point shooting accuracy (39.5%) are the best in his time in the league. For this reason, he has the second-highest odds at DraftKings to win Most Improved Player of the Year (+1200). But what makes this all even more impressive is the fact that it shows such a boost in efficiency at higher volumes.

Cunningham averages 19.1 shot attempts per game. On the surface, it's not a huge jump from the 18.8 per game he averaged last season. However, he is making more 3-point attempts, and at a much higher rate. Last season, Cunningham averaged 5.4 3-point attempts per game. This season he is averaging 6.1 points per contest. This doesn't appear to be an anomaly either. It appears to be a concerted effort to improve his extensive game and add even more.

Last season, Cunningham averaged 7.3 pull-up field goal attempts per game and 2.0 pull-up 3-point attempts per game. He completed 43.6% overall on pull-ups and 32.5% on pull-ups from beyond the arc. In seven games this season, he is averaging 8.6 pull-up attempts per game and 3.6 from deep. He is shooting 36.0% on 3-pointers this season. As a result, his 3-point average per game has increased from 1.9 in the 2023-2024 season to 2.4 this year.

In six of seven games, Cunningham has used his new weapon to exceed his 3-point mark. Sunday's win over Brooklyn was the first game this season in which he didn't make multiple 3-point attempts. The market has really adapted a lot here. The juice of over 1.5 3-pointers was at -180 in several stores yesterday. Today, against the Los Angeles Lakers, his lead is -165 or more to the over.

Now the question arises: is it worth following this trend over the course of the season? The answer I keep coming back to is no. Maybe Cunningham will actually become a knockdown, pull-up shooter, hitting 40% of his 3-point attempts. But at current prices – the implied probability of -165 is 62.3% – the market has completely priced out bettors. It might seem tempting to buy a player who is 6-1 on the over with his 3-point shooting ability, but there doesn't seem to be much of a bargain at this point.