Key swing state counties to watch in the 2024 Trump-Harris race

Once the polls close on Election Day, all eyes will turn to swing states across the country that are counting their votes in the presidential race. And within those states, there are a handful of counties that could hold the key to the outcome.

Here's a look at some of the key counties to watch in the seven presidential battleground states, ranked by the state's latest poll deadline (in Eastern Standard Time).

Georgia (7 p.m.)

Chattooga: This northwest county is one of NBC News' seven communities to watch as part of the 2022 County to County Project. It is rural and has a significant proportion of evangelical voters. Even though then-President Donald Trump lost the state in 2020, his support here grew.

Cherokee and Forsyth: The suburbs and suburbs surrounding Marietta tell a different story, one of a reliably Republican community that has turned away from the party in recent years. Mitt Romney won more than 80% in Forsyth in 2012, but eight years later Trump received only two-thirds of the vote there.

Gwinnett and Cobb: There's no doubt that much of the discussion on election night will revolve around the Atlanta suburbs. Democrats performed well here in recent elections and will likely need to maintain their double-digit lead to win again.

North Carolina (7:30 p.m.)

Anson: Democrats not only need to increase their margins in big cities, but also mobilize voters in the rural South, especially black voters. In 2020, Joe Biden won this district by just 4 points over Trump, while Hillary Clinton won by 13 points in 2016. If Vice President Kamala Harris struggles to match Biden's lead with black voters, it could cost her here.

Henderson: South of Asheville, this county is a federal disaster area following the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene at the end of September. While Trump handily won this district in 2020, his vote share fell three points between 2016 and 2020 (from 62% to 59%), and he failed to match Romney's 63% in 2012. Trump could help defend against Democrats' push to pull off an upset here by moving closer to the GOP results of 2016 or 2012. Nikki Haley exceeded her share of the vote in her state here in the Republican presidential primary in March.

Nash: East of Raleigh, Nash was decided by razor-thin majorities in the last presidential election (Trump won it in 2016, while Biden won it in 2020). It is also home to a competitive congressional race.

Wake up: Home to Raleigh in the fast-growing Research Triangle, Democrats have increased their lead here and must continue to do so if they want to unseat North Carolina.

Pennsylvania (8 p.m.)

Money: One of the most important districts in the Philadelphia suburbs and one where, as Dave Wasserman, senior editor and election analyst at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter (and NBC News Decision Desk contributor), notes in a recent analysis, “Trump’s districts ” are “The Best Opportunity to Get Ahead in the Philly Suburbs” because the percentage of whites without a college degree is higher.

Erie: This swing county (north of Pittsburgh on Lake Erie) is halfway between Buffalo and Cleveland and supported Trump by two points in 2016 before Biden won it by one point in 2020.

Lackawanna: This Scranton-area county leaned away from Democrats from 2012 to 2016 before pulling back slightly in 2020 (Barack Obama +28, Clinton +3, Biden +8). The 2024 margin here could shed light on whether Biden, a Scranton native, was uniquely positioned to stem Democratic erosion.

Northampton: Northampton was one of the best counties in recent memory, choosing the presidential winner for decades.

Arizona (9 p.m.)

Maricopa: The big focus on Maricopa is no surprise, considering that more than half of the state's residents live here. Democrats have made progress here as they have made the state more competitive by adding moderate Republican and Hispanic voters to their coalition. While Trump won by three points in 2016, Biden won Maricopa by two points four years later.

Michigan (9 p.m.)

Kent: Romney, home to Grand Rapids, won this once reliably Republican county with 53% of the vote in 2012. Trump narrowly won it in 2016 with 48%, but Biden won four years later with 42%. If Trump can get Kent looking more like 2016 or 2012, he could be in for a good night in the state.

Wayne: An obvious focus for both campaigns, as the county is home to Detroit and will be a testing ground for how Harris can perform with black and Arab-American voters. Neither Clinton nor Biden were able to reach Obama's mark of 73% from 2012.

Large traverse: This affluent area of ​​northwest Michigan, home to Traverse City, leans Democratic. Trump wants to reverse that trend with this breakthrough.

Wisconsin (9 p.m.)

Dane: In this county, home to Madison and the University of Wisconsin, Democratic intensity takes center stage in high-stakes college towns. Biden received a net 181,327 votes over Trump here in 2020 — an increase from Clinton's 146,422 in 2016. And that Democratic gain helped the party win over Wisconsin in 2020, as Biden won the state by just 20,000 votes.

Ozaukee: North of Milwaukee, it's the “O” in the “WOW” counties, the nickname for the state's three suburban counties that have served as home bases for Republicans. Biden's 43% there in 2020 was the best performance by a Democrat there since 1964, as Ozaukee and Waukesha have drifted somewhat away from the GOP in recent years.

Washington: As the only one of the three “WOW” districts in which Trump increased his share of the vote between 2016 and 2020, Washington is pushing back the trend that has also affected its neighboring districts. Trump must stand firm here and ensure that any deviations in the suburbs elsewhere do not find their way into Washington.