Trump stock is surging ahead of Election Day as the former president calls the Iowa pollster an “enemy” for predicting a Harris victory

Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, whose multibillion-dollar valuation often reflects the ex-president's chances of returning to the White House, rose 12% during Monday's trading session to close at $34.34 apiece.

Its price has more than doubled in the last 30 or so days as market confidence grows in an imminent Trump victory this week.

However, recent successes did not seem to lift his spirits.

Potentially worrying data released by a resident this weekend Des Moines Register Pollster Ann Selzer believes that even in the rural heartlands of the country, home to Trump's conservative base, female voters may flock to Harris in large numbers.

“I got a poll, I'm up 10 points in Iowa, one of my enemies just put out a poll, I'm down three points,” he said at a rally. “Why are they announcing a poll that is heavily skewed toward Democrats and liberals?”

“No benefit” to manipulating survey data

Using words like “enemy” to describe a respected pollster like Selzer is symptomatic of the inflammatory and often dehumanizing rhetoric for which Trump has long been known.

Selzer dismissed Trump's claim, telling CNN her polling methodology hasn't changed one bit since her polls in 2016 and 2020 suggested Trump was leading in the state.

“We didn’t do anything to make this possible. “I'm a big advocate of keeping my dirty fingers away from the data,” she said Monday, adding that there was “no advantage” to manipulating her poll data to give Harris an advantage.

In the final days of the race, Trump's campaign may have suffered an unforced error after a mass rally at Madison Square Garden angered Puerto Ricans and Hispanics in general after a comedian made offensive remarks intended to address the crowd.

Trump, who quickly disavowed the individual, sought to offset the controversy by taking the stage Monday in Pittsburgh with the son of Puerto Rican baseball legend Roberto Clemente, the city where his late father once played for the Pirates.

The former president also received a late but important boost from comedian Joe Rogan, the highest-paid podcaster in the world. Rogan waited until the eve of the election to officially endorse Trump.

Nonetheless, Selzer's survey is clear Des Moines Register raises concerns that women — who vote at higher rates than their male counterparts — could quietly abandon Trump.

How can the emergence of the shy voter be explained?

Many women are concerned after several high-profile cases of pregnant women dying after being denied health care as a direct result of the landmark Dobbs ruling in 2022.

Trump has repeatedly bragged that it was all his fault since he appointed the Supreme Court justices needed to overthrow him Roe v. Wade.

The Selzer poll was seen as evidence that pollsters who called the race a dead heat were acting out of a desire to seek safety in numbers after the shocking 2016 election results showed no latent support for Trump.

Selzer is known to be far less willing to consider potential biases such as response bias.

By comparison, most of her colleagues frequently correct their data to reflect timid Trump voters.

This cohort tends not to admit to pollsters that they will vote for the former president, either because they don't want to be associated with his MAGA base of January 6 supporters or because they fundamentally disagree with the pollsters' methods trusted.

Political expert Rory Stewart, a former British government minister who was married to an American, argued that these modeling corrections to fix problems in their data meant that pollsters could not be trusted to paint an accurate picture would provide public opinion.

“I think their fundamental model is broken,” he said this month, citing difficulties in gathering a broad enough range of responses now that most voters are only accessible via mobile devices. “It never recovered from the demise of the landline.”

Appropriately named RealClear Politics senior election analyst Sean Trende had advice for voters struggling to guess the meaning of Selzer's stunning outlier amid the nonstop guessing game from polls and prediction markets.

“Throw it into the average,” he wrote on Monday. “We really don’t know what’s going to happen on Tuesday.”

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