close
close

The polls could be way off base. Nevertheless, the election was not manipulated.

The polls could be way off base. Nevertheless, the election was not manipulated.

This article is part of The DC Brief, TIME's politics newsletter. Sign in Here to send stories like this to your inbox.

If you take the time to read this, I suspect we have some overlap in the makeup of our social circles. Inevitably I get asked the same question in almost every conversation: Who will win this? And no doubt I'm stuck in a less than artful dodge. This is certainly a dodge, but one that is best implemented in this environment of hyper-uncertainty.

So when I can, I respond with a shrug emoji. If the request comes while I'm home and in person, I'll throw back a variation on a version of the crystal ball joke that, admittedly, isn't particularly amusing. But the most honest thing you can say, at least until we have real results this Election Day, is this: Nobody really knows.

Millions of dollars have been invested in surveys and probably billions of hours spent reading them. The best thing real supporters of this campaign can do now is pretend that none of these polls ever reached this screen. Trying to align today's expectations with possible outcomes is quite pointless and a little irresponsible; These surveys were outdated at the time of reading and extremely wasteful in this final step toward an actual count.

That's not to say polls were rubbish. They were useful snapshots that showed how the expected electorate viewed the race in a narrow window. They are in no way predictive – and I can’t shout that loud enough from the rooftops.

This brings me to a point that is uniquely important with one of these candidates: Just because a poll shows an advantage before Election Day doesn't mean a victory is certain. Furthermore, there is absolutely no reason to believe that results from election officials that do not match the polls are rigged. Mismatched poll numbers or misaligned turnout expectations are not evidence of voter fraud, fraud, or fraud. There are discrepancies between polls and vote counts, and voters would do well to look at the results of Election Day counts, rather than the polls based on them. There is no justification for declaring a winner before the math is done, and the flood of polling data gets no voice.

No matter who received your vote this Election Day, do yourself this simple favor: close all tabs where you follow polls of all kinds. Trying to set expectations based on a mathematical model will only increase the anxiety that is already manifesting itself. (For those who missed it: Downtown DC and the areas surrounding the White House and the Vice President's residence are already fortified with high fences and plywood-covered windows in anticipation of chaos tonight and for the 11 weeks leading up to the day the inauguration.)

If you're committed to following along and looking for updates, TIME's staff will be live blogging the events as we know them here, and our map of state-by-state winners can be found here. But actually, the best that could be available before we actually have numbers on the servers is this: take a break from this election once your ballot is returned; we all deserve it.

Understand what matters in Washington. Sign up for the DC Brief newsletter.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *