What happens if there is a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election?

The razor-thin lead in the polls between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris suggests a tight race that will be decided by a handful of swing states.

A tie in the Electoral College count when all votes are tabulated is highly unlikely, but not impossible.

Here's a look at what would happen then.

The odds for a draw are 269-269

So how does a tie happen in the Electoral College? Here are the three simplest permutations according to the website 270 To Win:

• Trump wins every state he won in 2020, as well as Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris wins every state Joe Biden won in 2020, plus North Carolina.
• Trump wins every state he won in 2020, as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Harris holds every other state Biden won in 2020.
• Trump wins every state he won in 2020, plus Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Harris wins every state Biden won in 2020, plus North Carolina.

There has never been an even split in the electoral college in US history.

Hypothetically, a tie could also occur if some voters became “ruthless” and cast their votes for third-party candidates, preventing a candidate from receiving the 270 votes needed to win.

According to a simulation of 1,000 elections conducted by 538, the probability of a draw or “no winner” is only 0.2%.

Who would become president?

The 12th Amendment determines how a president would be elected if the Electoral College vote is 269-269.

Under the law, the newly elected House of Representatives would meet on January 6, 2025 to count the electoral votes.

Once it is confirmed that no candidate has a majority of the electoral vote, House Democrats will break the tie, giving each state's delegation a single vote and requiring a simple majority of 26 states to become the 47th president.

While lawmakers will technically be able to list their top three candidates, in practice the choice will be clearly between Trump and Harris.

Republicans currently hold the majority in 26 state delegations, while Democrats are ahead in 22, with Minnesota and North Carolina evenly split between the parties.

Who would be vice president?

The 12th Amendment also sets the rules for how the vice president is elected in the event of a tie.

The newly elected Senate would meet to cast its votes for vice president, with each senator having the opportunity to cast an individual vote.

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The Senate would have to choose between the two vice presidential candidates with the highest Electoral College score, either Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) or Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

The rules mean there is a scenario in which the president and vice president could be from different parties.

What happens if Congress doesn't reach an agreement?

If the House does not elect a president by noon on Jan. 20, the person chosen by the Senate as vice president would serve as president while lawmakers continue voting.

The Speaker of the House of Representatives would serve as president under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 if both the Senate and House of Representatives failed to vote.

Neither scenario has occurred in American history.