How investors assess the election results

Whether these signals have any connection with the final vote remains to be seen. But here is an introduction to these areas of finance and economics.

Donald Trump's media company operates the Truth Social platform and is traded on the Nasdaq under the symbol DJT. The stock is seen as an indicator of how investors assess Trump's election chances – since there are hardly any financial reasons to buy shares in a loss-making company with shrinking revenue.

The stock began a steady climb in late September and then jumped as polls suggested the race was shifting toward Republicans. Trump Media shares rose nearly 50 percent in the three trading days between October 24th and 29th. But not for long. The stock fell 22 percent on Wednesday, 12 percent on Thursday and 14 percent on Friday.

Trump Media shares rose 12 percent on Monday, but were still 33 percent below their October 29 peak.

Some analysts blamed the recent plunge as a response to Trump's insult- and threat-filled rally at Madison Square Garden, while others attributed it to short-sellers profiting from driving down stock prices and targeting overvalued companies. Either way, the volatility has shown that Trump and his political perspectives are the company's most important asset.

According to Nasdaq, short positions on Trump Media shares doubled to about 14 million shares between mid-July and mid-September. In the last update on October 15, short positions accounted for about 13 million shares, about a third of the daily average volume.

If Trump loses, Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management, told Fortune magazine that his media company's stock price would “eventually go to zero.”

Betting or prediction markets determine the odds based on how much investors – OK, bettors – are willing to pay for contracts to support the candidates. For example, if buyers pay 60 cents for a contract that pays $1 if Trump wins, they believe his chances of winning are 60 percent. (You get Zip if Trump loses.)

The odds have been in Trump's favor in recent weeks, but Vice President Kamala Harris has closed the gap – especially after a poll released Sunday showed her ahead in Iowa. On the Kalshi betting market, odds for Trump fell from 63 percent on Tuesday to 51 percent on Sunday, but recovered to 55 percent on Monday. Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, had Trump's odds slightly higher at 59 percent.

However, the betting markets are thinly traded and can easily be influenced by a few big bets. Plus, the odds don't determine the outcome – as Bostonians can attest on the 20th anniversary of the Red Sox' historic comeback in the American League Championship Series.

Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale University, has developed a model that predicts Democrats' share of the popular vote based on a short list of political and economic factors, including term of office, economic growth and inflation.

The model, created in 1978, typically predicts outcomes within a few percentage points. The latest – and final – increase came on Wednesday after the Commerce Department released third-quarter economic growth and inflation data. The model predicted Harris' vote share would be 49.5 percent.

Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College, noted that when you consider that 1 or 2 percent goes to third-party candidates, the fair model is essentially a draw. We started there.

There is a longstanding saying among politicians that Election Day is the only poll that matters. But with so much at stake and the outcome so unclear, anxious observers will cling to any signals – and hopes – they can find.

Rob Gavin can be reached at [email protected].