How Jill Stein's Green Party can prevent Kamala Harris from winning

As voters head to the polls on Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are separated by a razor-thin margin, both nationally and in key swing states.

If the polls are accurate, even a relatively small handful of votes could play a decisive role in victory.

While Green Party candidate Jill Stein is unlikely to win the presidency, it is suspected that Stein and the Green Party are siphoning off votes that would likely have gone to Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party itself accused Stein of this in one of its campaign ads, in which Stein's face morphed into Trump's, with the message: “A vote for Stein is actually a vote for Trump.”

But what exactly could Stein's impact on the Democratic Party's chances of victory? Newsweek visualized Stein's potential impact in maps and diagrams.

In the 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton narrowly lost in two swing states – Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Michigan, Trump received 47.6 percent of the vote, Clinton 47.3 percent and Stein 1.1 percent.

In Wisconsin in 2016, Trump received 47.9 percent, Clinton 46.9 percent and Stein 1.1. Percent.

In theory, if those who voted for Stein had voted for Clinton, the then-Democratic nominee would have won both, although that alone would not have been enough to secure Clinton the presidency.

With Trump and Harris now separated by a hair's breadth in Michigan and Wisconsin, the Stein vote could prove crucial again this year.

As of early Friday, Harris is only 0.8 points ahead of Trump in Michigan. A recent AtlasIntel poll found Stein has a 2 percent approval rating.

In Wisconsin, Harris was only 0.6 points ahead of Trump, according to the AtlasIntel poll, with Stein receiving 1 percent of the vote.

Taking the Green Party's share of the vote would help solidify Harris' shaky lead.

In 2016, the winner in Wisconsin was determined by a margin of just around 20,000 votes.

These states also have significant Muslim populations, many of whom support Stein over Harris because of the Biden administration's stance on Israel's war in Gaza.

For example, according to a 2020 study by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), four percent of Wayne County, Michigan's 1,749,000 residents were Muslim.

“Democrats cannot win without the support of the Muslim American community. And that community has left the station and is not coming back unless the Democrats decide that winning the election is more important to them than committing genocide,” Stein said in an interview with Newsweek.

A recent report from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found that Stein led Harris in this group in several swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. Stein led 40-12, 44-49 and 35-29, respectively.

“These new poll results make clear that American Muslim voters have the potential to determine the results in several key battleground states and are still up for grabs in the 2024 election,” said Robert S. McCaw, CAIR’s director of government affairs , in the report.

“Candidates running for office cannot afford to overlook the issues that matter most to Muslim Americans. Ignoring this community or taking their votes for granted could be a costly mistake, especially in swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, where elections are often won by narrow margins.”

Newsweek emailed Harris and Stein's campaigns seeking comment.

Do you have a story we should cover? Do you have questions about the 2024 presidential election? contact [email protected]