CNN predicts Moreno will defeat Brown in Ohio, a key victory for Republicans

CNN
—

Republican Bernie Moreno will defeat Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, CNN predicts. This is a major boost for the GOP in a state that is trending and brings the GOP one step closer to securing the Senate majority.

The three-term incumbent was already the last remaining Democrat holding out-of-court statewide office in the Buckeye State, and his defeat is another sign that down-ballot races are trending more and more in the same direction as the front-runners with fewer voters.

Moreno, a car dealership owner from Cleveland, leaned heavily on former President Donald Trump's support in a state that backed him by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Moreno emerged as the Republican candidate earlier this year after Democrats backed him in the primary and believed he would be the weakest opponent.

The Republican tried to nationalize the race by linking Brown – a progressive populist who was first elected to the Senate in 2006 – to Vice President Kamala Harris on immigration and inflation. Moreno's GOP allies also tried to condemn Brown over transgender athletes in an attempt to portray the senator as too liberal for the state. (Brown and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a response ad on the issue, saying the senator agreed with GOP Gov. Mike DeWine that “these decisions should be made by local sports leagues, not politicians.”)

Moreno has trailed in public polls for most of the year, although those numbers began to worsen as GOP voters rallied around him in the final weeks before Election Day.

He managed to overcome attacks on abortion, which was a major theme of Democrats' messaging against him, particularly after remarks at the town hall in which he suggested that some suburban women were single voters and questioned why women over 50 would be interested in the topic. (Moreno's campaign said he “clearly made a tongue-in-cheek joke.”) Democrats seized on those comments and argued that Moreno was out of step with Ohioans, who just last year approved a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state Constitution with 57% of the vote.

Brown's considerable fundraising strength allowed him to reserve advertising at cheaper candidate rates and dominate the airwaves through the summer. But Moreno had significant outside firepower from GOP groups that helped boost his candidacy in the fall.

According to advertising tracking firm AdImpact, the race was the most expensive congressional contest ever.