If Trump loses the election, X will also suffer major losses

I've been working on my predictions for social media in 2025, but there's one particularly timely prediction among them that can't wait. Although it's probably not a radical prediction for those who have been paying attention.

The future of the platform formerly known as Twitter depends heavily on the outcome of this week's US presidential election. If Trump wins, X and owner Elon Musk will also make a big profit, but if Trump loses, the opposite is also true. And given X's larger problems, I'm not sure the platform will even survive another year if that's the case.

Here's why:

Elon Musk put his reputation on the line by supporting Trump and is doing everything he can to get Trump re-elected.

Why is Elon suddenly so devoted to Trump?

That's an interesting question, especially when Musk said just two years ago:

Elon believed two years ago that Trump was too old to be president and that he had caused too much distracting drama during his time in office.

And of course, Trump responded to Musk's comments in his usual style:

Trump further suggested that Musk should do this Focus on “getting out of the Twitter mess because he could owe $44 billion for something that might be worthless.”

But two years later, they are brothers in arms, striving toward a goal that Elon clearly opposed, using the platform that Trump deemed worthless.

Seems like a big shift, but in reality it's far less about aligning ideologies, as both men now like to suggest, and more about gaining power on both sides of the equation.

Musk's purchase of Twitter relies on political influence and the ability to influence public opinion on policies and politicians that oppose his various plans.

We've seen this in practice as Musk loudly and repeatedly attacks governments and regulators with whom he has a problem, while either increasing support for those who work with him and his companies or quietly acquiescing to their demands.

The most obvious example is Brazil, where X recently spoke out against a court order to block the profiles of users found by Brazilian authorities to be spreading false information. This resistance led to…

The Brazilian claims relate to users who continue to claim that the 2022 Brazilian elections were “stolen,” which led to the downfall of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Various research has been conducted into these claims, but no evidence has been found to support them. And since this claim undermines the current government, Brazilian officials decided to suppress it where they can, including by asking X to remove these users from the platform.

Musk refused to comply with the request, then repeatedly complained about corruption within the Brazilian government and legal system, while also calling on Brazilians to vote out their government at the first opportunity.

Yet other governments have asked X to do exactly the same thing and remove certain accounts for violating local laws. And X has done this, sometimes with an indication of how much it is against it. But such requests will still be honored.

So why was Elon so upset about Brazil but not so much about Turkey, even though the core issue was exactly the same?

Because Musk lost money when Bolsonaro was voted out, and he is trying to use his power and influence at X to get revenge on those who thwarted his business plans.

Bolsonaro and Musk had developed a business relationship that would give Musk significant advantages for his projects, including cheap offers for lithium for Tesla from Brazilian mines. Lithium is a key ingredient in electric car batteries, and Musk has worked with several governments in the South American region to secure better terms for the mineral.

For example, Musk secured a lithium supply deal with Bolivia back in 2021 following the ouster of Bolivian President Evo Morales, who had refused to allow American companies to enter Bolivia and take over Bolivia's resources.

At the time, Musk posted this tweet:

This shows his views on Twitter and his ability to exert political influence, and it's also worth noting that after this tweet, Musk started buying up Twitter shares, which eventually led to him buying the app.

Another example is Argentina, where Musk praised President Javier Milei effusively.

Guess who also worked on a lithium supply deal for Tesla? That's right, Milei met with Musk Tesla's headquarters in Austin earlier this year to discuss possible lithium projects.

Musk's drive is evident in all of his dealings at X Tesla is currently working on it Conclusion of new distribution contracts for his vehicles. As stated above, X has also adhered to the demands of the Turkish government, which is considering options for both Tesla And Starlink.

The approach is clear, but re-electing Trump is Musk's most important project on this front and his main selling point for X as a political influence machine.

If Trump wins this week, Elon will have access to new opportunities for X, either through government projects or business deals related to that political influence. Again, this is Elon's real game, promoting X as a means of influencing voters based on his own presence on the app and his ability to advance platform approaches to benefit his chosen cause.

A Trump victory would be an Elon victory in this regard, as it confirms his personal power to change voting results, which he could sell to opposing parties in many regions.

However, a Trump defeat would destroy many, many opportunities for X.

And X needs to get back on track. The company's revenue is down about 70% compared to before Musk took over, while the company is also losing millions of users.

Advertisers continue to distance themselves from Elon's more divisive approach to platform management, and there is little reason for them to come back. And when you combine that with the enormous debt burden Elon has saddled the company with as part of financing its acquisition, it's impossible for X to turn a profit of any kind any time soon.

In fact, X is on track to post a big loss in 2024.

And if things don't change soon, Musk and his investors will only soak up so much on that front, despite his personal wealth.

Again, the fate of X in this election is closely tied to the fate of Trump. And if Trump loses, X and Musk will be in big trouble.

A Harris win would put X on the fast track to bankruptcy, and if that happens, I expect Elon to look to exit the social media business in the second half of 2025.

Musk remarked in a recent interview that I would be screwed if Trump lost. And although experts do not see the broader impact of such a blow on its other projects such as Tesla or SpaceX, even if Harris wins, X will be in a much more difficult position.

Aside from potentially saving TikTok if Trump returns to the White House, the other social media angle that comes directly from the vote could be the eventual loss of X and what's left of Twitter on the app.