The US elections are a crucial moment for Ukraine and future aid

Tensions are likely to be high in Kiev ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election – a vote that could determine the success or failure of ongoing aid to Ukraine.

The latest NBC News poll showed a “deadlocked race” between Republican candidate and former US President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate, current Vice President Kamala Harris.

For Kiev, the big question is how much support and financial support it will continue to receive after White House Chairman Joe Biden, who served throughout Russia's war in Ukraine, leaves office.

After nearly three years of fighting, there is no doubt that funding fatigue is setting in among Kiev's biggest military supporters, particularly the United States, even as the White House and NATO continue to publicly express their support for Ukraine.

There is widespread agreement that a Trump administration and hard-line Republicans would be far more hostile to providing more military aid to Ukraine, which would significantly limit their ability to continue to push back against Russia. But it is also likely that even a pro-Kiev government under Kamala Harris, committed to continuing to support the war-torn country, could have difficulty convincing U.S. lawmakers to provide far more financial support to Ukraine grant.

Officials in Kyiv say the elections will be closely watched amid concerns that future aid could be cut.

“Of course, we understand that this is one of the possible scenarios that would be extremely unfavorable for Ukraine,” senior Ukrainian official Yuriy Sak told CNBC last week.

“But we, for our part, will do everything we can to continue to persuade our partners in the United States to maintain the same level of funding and support, because the alternative is bad for all parties involved, including the United States of America,” he said added.

“We are of course monitoring what is happening very closely. We have our opinions about the various candidates, but… we hope and expect that the United States of America will continue to support Ukraine, regardless of who the next president is.” until we win and until we win restore just peace.

Ukraine relies on its international partners for the military, humanitarian and financial support it needs to maintain the country's economic functioning and to remain militarily able to counter those entrenched and slow in southern Ukraine to defend the country from advancing Russian forces in the Donbass region in the east.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, considered one of the most reliable trackers of foreign aid to Ukraine, calculates that the US has spent almost $108 billion on military, humanitarian and financial aid since the start of the war in February 2022 through August 31, while E.U -Member states and institutions (such as the European Investment Bank and the European Commission) have spent a total of 161.11 billion euros (US$175.47 billion) on such aid.

U.S. generosity toward Ukraine has become increasingly difficult for U.S. lawmakers amid months of delays and objections from Republican hardliners to a $61 billion aid package that was finally passed in the spring.

A crucial factor for Ukraine is whether Republican Democrats dominate Congress after the election. This is a crucial factor in how much power the future president wields and the extent to which he or she is able to financially support – or thwart – Ukraine.

Donald Trump has strongly indicated he would cut off military aid to Kiev after claiming he would end the war within 24 hours of his election, without providing details on how he would do so. Analysts say it is likely that Trump sees blocking funding as a way to end the war by force.

His vice president, JD Vance, explicitly rejects further aid to Ukraine, arguing that the US should encourage Kiev to a peace deal with Russia and be prepared to cede land to Moscow.

According to economists at Berenberg Bank, it would be an extreme scenario for Trump to immediately cut off funding to Ukraine, but it is entirely possible for a politician known for his unpredictability.

“Although Europe is the largest donor to Ukraine, U.S. military assistance is critical to Kiev,” Berenberg Bank said in emailed comments last month. “If Europe doesn't step into the breach quickly and, for example, issue bonds worth 50 billion euros ($54.1 billion) to buy from the USA the weapons and ammunition that Ukraine needs but Europe cannot produce , Putin could win the war of attrition. Ukraine submits.”

While an election victory for Harris would be a relief for Kiev, as she has vehemently promised that her administration will support Ukraine “for as long as necessary,” neither she nor Washington have ever clearly defined the exact meaning of her statement about what Ukraine's victory looks like or whether there is a limit to US aid.

In the week before the presidential election, Western officials reportedly said that a Harris administration would likely have difficulty getting major aid to Ukraine through Congress.

CNBC has reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns.

Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7), a group of industrialized countries, moved to “Trump-proof” short-term aid to Ukraine ahead of the Nov. 5 election, agreeing on a loan in late October to the tune of $50 billion to Ukraine, which will be backed by frozen Russian assets.

The G7 said it would begin disbursing funds before the end of the year, essentially before a new U.S. administration could act against the deal.

However, if the US withdraws its funding to Ukraine in 2025, Europe will be forced to support Kiev in the future, raising the thorny issue of continuing to use the proceeds from a vast pool of Russian central bank frozen assets – the vast majority of which are found in Europe – an urgent point.

“Now $50 billion (agreed by the G7) sounds like a lot of money, but it only represents three to four months of Ukraine’s financing needs,” Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said last month in via E -Email sent comments.

He is among those pushing for an estimated $330 billion worth of immobilized Russian assets to be seized and reallocated to Ukraine to help it continue to defend itself against Russia, and he has faced opposition from some EU States that fear that Russia will retaliate against such a move are noted. Some nations have more to fear than others; Currently, around $191 billion of all immobilized Russian assets are held in the Belgian central securities depository Euroclear.

Ash said he would urge any future Trump administration to pressure the EU “to release the entire $330 billion in assets to Ukraine.”

“Ukraine could then finance its own defense and reconstruction,” he said, suggesting the country might even commit to spending a large portion of the funds on purchasing defense equipment from the United States

“A total of $150 billion spent in the United States over 10 years would be the largest foreign arms purchase in U.S. history. It would save the U.S. taxpayer from having to write checks to Ukraine, save thousands of U.S. defense jobs, and help ensure victory.” “Ukraine must fight the war and build its own defenses against future Russian attacks, and that “Everything is financed by the aggressor – Russia,” Ash suggested.

Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday's vote, analysts agree that Ukraine's future is precarious given dwindling Western support and funding fatigue.

Tim Willasey-Wilsey, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank, commented that “the immediate threat” to Ukraine comes from the 2024 US presidential election.

“The upcoming presidential election in the USA represents the point of greatest danger. A victory for Donald Trump could lead to him making a call to Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as November 6th. Such a call would raise expectations of a negotiated solution.” “Talks may begin in the first months of 2025,” he said.

Willasey-Wilsey said that under such a deal, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be unlikely to ensure the restoration of the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine or receive compensation for the massive damage inflicted on his country became. It is also likely that a negotiated settlement would see Russian officials not tried for alleged war crimes.

A bigger blow could be that a peace deal puts an end to Ukraine's achievement of the holy grail of future NATO membership.