5 takeaways from the 2024 election campaign as Trump wins against Harris

Election Day is set: NBC News has predicted that Donald Trump has won the presidential race against Kamala Harris and that Republicans have captured the Senate while the House of Representatives is still up for grabs.

The results and polling data reveal the undercurrents of what shaped a hotly contested election full of twists and turns.

Here are five takeaways from Election Night 2024.

Latinos are dramatically voting for Trump

It might be the biggest story of the race: Latino voters have gone Trump's way by an incredible 25 percentage points compared to four years ago.

Trump won the support of 45% of Latino voters nationwide, compared to 53% for Harris, the NBC News Exit Poll found. That's far better than the 33-point loss Trump suffered among Latinos in 2020, when he won 32% to Joe Biden's 65%. And it could end up being the strongest Republican showing among Latinos in a presidential campaign since George W. Bush hit 44% in 2004.

Nationally, Latinos made up 12% of the electorate, and Trump's gains are increasing his margins in a host of battleground states, from Pennsylvania to Arizona, complicating Harris' path.

Trump's gains were fueled by a massive shift among Latino men, who supported him over Harris by 10 points.

The swings will likely force Democrats into a reckoning over why they lack so much support among the rapidly growing demographic. Party members expected some losses among Hispanic voters, but not to the extent they suffered Tuesday.

Political gravity is catching up with Democrats in the Senate

Democrats, facing an enormously difficult situation in the Senate, had been betting that their battle-hardened incumbents would once again be able to defy political gravity in enemy territory – especially with the help of millions of dollars in spending from allied groups.

It shouldn't be.

Republicans flipped Democratic seats in West Virginia and Ohio to win the majority while holding comfortably in red-leaning states like Texas, Florida and Nebraska.

The result will give Republicans a boost as they set the agenda for key issues Congress must address in 2025: the expiring Trump tax cuts and a possible extension of Obamacare subsidies to lower premiums for the middle class, as well as a further extension of the debt ceiling and a new round of government financing.

Harris wins among white women and college graduates

The election showed signs of a racial realignment: Republicans made gains among nonwhite voters, while Democrats gained some points among white voters, especially women.

After Trump held an 11-point lead among white women in 2020, Harris narrowed the gap to 5 points, according to the NBC News Exit Poll.

Biden beat Trump by 9 points among college-educated white women four years ago. Harris expanded that lead to 20 points, arguably her most significant demographic triumph among a traditionally Republican-leaning cohort.

The overall education gap also grew: Harris gained some points among college graduates, while Trump gained some points among voters without a college degree.

And the generation gap has narrowed somewhat, with Trump gaining among men under 30, winning 47%, compared to 49% for Harris.

The abortion issue was not a panacea for Democrats

Undoubtedly, the issue of abortion and the backlash to the overturn of Roe v. Wade helped Harris. The NBC News exit poll found that abortion was the third most important issue to voters, and Harris won those who named it by 52 points.

But abortion was not the defining issue of the cycle, trumped by economics and democracy. Trump handily won over those who cited the economy as their most important issue, while Harris handily won over those who said they prioritize the state of democracy.

In the end, economic concerns took center stage: Trump dominated the two-thirds of voters who rated the economy as “not so good” or “bad” with 40 points.

The fight for the House of Representatives continues

Meanwhile, the results of the race for control of the closely divided House of Representatives may not be announced immediately.

The reason is that the fight for the majority in the chamber is being fought on a different battlefield than that for the White House and the Senate. Competitive House districts are in the disproportionately white and highly educated suburbs where Democrats have largely held their own.

The House majority will likely be decided by races in blue states – particularly New York, where Democrats hope to make gains, and California, where Republicans are defending five seats in difficult terrain. Still, it's unclear whether Democrats will pick up enough seats to flip the House since they've lost some ground elsewhere.

It leaves open a sensitive question about the balance of power in Washington next year.