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See latest way, spaghetti models for Storm

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See latest way, spaghetti models for Storm

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According to the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Rafael continues to strengthen and is expected to reach major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday.

Rafael was about 160 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba, on Wednesday morning, the NHC said. The storm is moving toward the northwest, and a “general northwestward movement” is expected over the next day or two, followed by a west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico.

“On the forecast path, Rafael is expected to move near or over the Isle of Youth during the morning or early afternoon and make landfall in western Cuba during the day,” NHC forecasters said in an advisory Wednesday morning. “Rafael is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.”

The hurricane center said Rafael is currently experiencing maximum sustained winds of about 100 miles per hour with stronger gusts and rapid strengthening is forecast. The storm could be “close to major hurricane intensity” before making landfall, and while Rafael is expected to weaken over Cuba, it is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.

Rafael flew west of Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon, where authorities opened four emergency shelters but reported no deaths or injuries despite heavy rain.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect areas of the western Caribbean, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into western Cuba, through early Thursday, according to the NHC. Rainfall totals of between 4 and 7 inches are expected in the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with isolated rainfall up to 10 inches in higher areas.

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Is the US at Risk?: Rafael was upgraded to a hurricane; could experience “rapid intensification.”

There could be impacts in the Florida Keys starting Wednesday

The hurricane center said tropical storm conditions are expected across parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and central Florida Keys Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are also expected for the lower and central Florida Keys, with some tornadoes also possible in the area and in the far southwest mainland of Florida.

What about the Gulf Coast?

Given the ongoing uncertainty over the long-term forecast, the NHC said it is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael could have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast. The waves are expected to spread across much of the Gulf by the end of the week.

Forecasts show the storm could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle over the weekend, AccuWeather said. The highest chance of it making landfall there is as a tropical storm along the coast of central Louisiana, according to AccuWeather. Other possible scenarios include the storm turning west and moving over the west coast of Mexico.

The good news: Drier air and stronger vertical wind shear in the Gulf are expected to weaken the hurricane until it approaches the U.S. mainland. “This will not be a situation where there is an intensifying major hurricane making landfall in the U.S., but rather somewhat less severe wind intensity,” AccuWeather's forecast said.

Hurricane Rafael Path Tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely direction of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

Gabe Hauari is a nationally featured news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

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