Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin will be re-elected in Wisconsin, CNN predicts

CNN
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According to CNN forecasts, Senator Tammy Baldwin will win re-election in Wisconsin. This is a victory for Senate Democrats, who are trying to defend the so-called “blue wall states” even though they lost them at the presidential level and have already lost their majority in the House of Representatives.

Baldwin is expected to defeat Republican Eric Hovde in a race that drew widespread attention late after initially appearing less competitive than some other states where Democrats were on the defensive.

Baldwin will return for a third term in a dramatically changed Senate. Republicans are currently expected to control 52 seats next year after ousting West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. CNN had not yet forecast the other “blue wall” Senate races – in Pennsylvania and Michigan – as of Wednesday afternoon.

Republicans came to Hovde late, but Democrats had worked early to define him, seizing on some of his controversial comments to portray him as a California banker who didn't have the well-being of Wisconsin voters at heart. (The CEO of Sunwest Bank owns a home in Laguna Beach, California, but was born and raised in the Badger State.) Democrats also took up the issue of abortion to attract non-traditional Democratic voters.

Hovde, who is also CEO of a prominent Madison-based development company that bears his name, poured millions of dollars into his campaign and had significant outside firepower from GOP groups. But Baldwin — a well-known incumbent who was first elected to the Senate in 2012 after seven terms in the House — raised significant funds that also allowed her to reserve advertising time at cheaper candidate rates.

Her campaign, for example, attacked Hovde for saying that most nursing home patients are unable to vote, while praising her work in the Senate, including efforts to pass the PACT Act, which would expand health benefits for veterans Exposed to burns, expanded pits.

The two-term incumbent had experience courting vested interests — she won her previous reelection in 2018 after former President Donald Trump carried Wisconsin two years earlier. But Hovde posed a greater challenge than her opponent six years ago. Baldwin made an attempt to travel to rural and conservative parts of the state to try to narrow Hovde's lead, even in places where Democrats were likely to lose. She also received the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation, a notable win for a statewide Democrat.

For much of the race, Hovde took a defensive stance on the air, responding to Democratic attacks — trying to expound on his Wisconsin roots or singling out Baldwin's spots as “nasty.” But the GOP candidate — whose campaign underwent an upheaval in the early fall — also tried to nationalize the race by trying to link Baldwin to President Joe Biden and then to Vice President Kamala Harris on inflation and the border.

And finally, Hovde and his Republican allies accused Baldwin, the first gay senator, of a conflict of interest because her partner of six years is a financial advisor to high-end clients. There is a lack of evidence to support the accusation, which Baldwin firmly denies. Republicans also attacked her over transgender issues and tried to portray the senator as too liberal for the state. Baldwin took to the airwaves and said that Hovde “lied” and that he was “not for us.”

While these GOP attack lines may have helped Hovde solidify the base that left him trailing for much of the race, it wasn't enough to win over the general electorate.