Tips, odds and predictions for Thursday November 7th

This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.

Thursday's college hoops slate brings us another easy deal, although we do have at least a few potential tournament teams on offer. After thoroughly examining two of the more interesting matchups, I present my best bets for the day.

Jacksonville in Florida

The Dolphins opened their season with a double-digit win (78-65) against Trinity Baptist, a DII team also from Jacksonville. A win is a win, but I'm sure Dolphins fans would have liked a more decisive result against a team from a lower league.

Jacksonville's biggest problem Monday was its inability to block shots from long range. The Dolphins made just 6 of 32 three-point attempts (19 percent), a concerning number considering the opponent's defensive intensity will likely be increased further when the Gators visit on Thursday. On the bright side, Jacksonville outrebounded Trinity Baptist by a huge 51-34 margin, which at least gave them a strength to build on. Still, the Dolphins were picked eighth (out of 12) in the ASUN Preseason Media Poll, so expectations aren't exactly high in Jacksonville.

The Gators also ended the season with a win on Monday, although their win carries a little more weight when they beat South Florida 98-83 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. The Gators weren't much better than the Dolphins with their long-range shooting, making just 5 of 26 shots (19 percent) from behind the arc, although they made up for it with extreme efficiency inside the zone, making 28 shots – of 37 (76). percent) two-point attempts.

Last year's Florida team was a scoring machine, ranking 17th in adjusted tempo and 12th in offensive efficiency – the perfect combination to score a ton of points. The Gators have returned several significant players and ranked 34th in minutes continuity last season according to KenPom, so it's a good bet that the scoring trends will continue throughout the season. Last year's team's biggest weakness was on defense, where they ranked 94th in efficiency. KenPom improved the rankings for the current roster to No. 52, potentially giving Florida a higher ceiling if the improved defense holds up.

Whatever the case, the most likely outcome of this game is Florida scoring a ton of points. The Gators have already dropped 98 points to a legitimate D1 team despite terrible shooting from behind the arc. Ultimately, I bet the Gators will make enough baskets to cover the high spread.

Additionally, Florida loves to push the tempo and Jacksonville isn't afraid to make three-point attempts, making 32 of them against Trinity Baptist. As a team, the Dolphins have made at least 33 percent of their shots from behind the arc in each of their last three seasons, all under current head coach Jordan Mincy. Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising if Jacksonville took a few more shots compared to the opening game. When the dust finally settles, I envision a final score of 90-65. For these reasons I am also in the fast lane.

College Basketball Best Bet: Florida -20 and over 152.5

UC Davis in Idaho

The Aggies started the season with a strong performance Tuesday in Seattle, where they played a must-win game against Washington. The Aggies had a five-point lead with less than seven minutes left, but lost control in the final minutes and lost 79-73.

The result was a loss, but UC Davis covered double digits without breaking a sweat, thanks in large part to the performance of star senior point guard TY Johnson, who dropped 35 points as he valiantly tried to to ensure the surprise. I previewed this game in my Tuesday article and highlighted Johnson because he entered the season as a potential favorite to be named Big West Player of the Year. He didn't disappoint us. Including Johnson, UC Davis had 10 players return from last year's team and ranked 44th in minutes continuity, according to KenPom. UC Davis finished third in the Big West conference last year at 14-6, so they have good reason for optimism.

The vandals, on the other hand, are still looking for hope. Just four years ago, Idaho finished the season with a 1-21 record. In the three years since, the Vandals have won 11 or fewer games in each season, which isn't particularly encouraging results. However, last season was the first under head coach Alex Pribble, so perhaps he can turn things around at some point. The team won 11 games in its first year, the most in a single season since 22 wins in 2018. It goes without saying that this is not a basketball program with a long history of success.

Idaho has 10 players returning, so the team is undoubtedly optimistic that an experienced second-year group will show signs of development under Coach Pribble, but there's no telling until they start playing games against rival teams. And despite all the roster continuity, Idaho was picked second to last in the Big Sky Preseason Media Poll. They could exceed expectations this year, but it remains to be seen.

Until then, given the competitive spirit UC Davis showed in its game against Washington, I like the Aggies' chances of winning a road game as narrow favorites. I lay out the points here.

College Basketball Best Bet: UC Davis -4

Thursday's college basketball best bets:

Here's a recap of my top college basketball bets for Thursday:

• Florida -20
• Jacksonville, Florida – Over 152.5
• UC Davis -4

For current information on the latest status College Basketball Betting Odds and props from multiple sportsbooks can be found here College basketball odds Page on RotoWire.

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