MLB Wild Card Series Day 3: Mets-Brewers updates, analysis

After the other three MLB Wild Card series ended in sweeps, all eyes are on Milwaukee, where the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers meet in a Game 3 showdown on Thursday night. The winner gets a date in the National League Division Series with the Philadelphia Phillies – and the loser goes home.

Which side is ahead? We provide you with predictions, keys, lineups, live updates and analysis as the games are played, followed by our insights after the final pitch.

Important links: MLB Playoff Preview | Bracket | Picks | Watch on ESPN

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Pitching matchup: Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA) vs. Tobias Myers (9-6, 3.00 ERA)

What's the key to Game 3 for the Mets?

David Schoenfield: A key element will be how manager Carlos Mendoza strategizes the late innings. He didn't bring closer Edwin Diaz into the game for a six-out save in Game 2, as he did against the Braves on Monday, but Diaz now has two days off after throwing 40 in that game and 26 the day before threw throws. Phil Maton blew the lead in Game 2; He's pitched four times in five days and hasn't looked good in his last two games (especially after the two home runs on Wednesday). The trust factor could be low on him, which will force Mendoza to consider his other backups or even starter David Peterson (who last pitched on Sunday).

Bradford Doolittle: The Mets need to find some long ball power. They did a great job stringing together rallies and hitting runners in scoring position. But they failed to go deep, and it's hard to imagine them winning again without hitting homers in one of baseball's most homer-friendly venues.

Jesse Rogers: Which version of Quintana appears? Is it the one who posted a 5.63 ERA in August or the one who finished the season strong, hitting a 0.72 mark in September? You can be sure the Mets will believe the latest version is the real Quintana when he starts an elimination game. Watch his curveball. If it's on, the Mets could advance.

What's the key for the Brewers heading into Game 3?

Schönfield: The Brewers need to try to make this a bullpen game — which means they need to try to increase Quintana's pitch count if possible. Quintana has a below-average walk rate and a below-average strikeout rate, so he's a guy you can approach with patience and not worry about him blowing you away with pure stuff. The Mets' roster is a little shaky with the pressure of getting in, so that could work to Milwaukee's advantage the sooner they take Quintana out. For the Brewers, it will be the same pitching strategy as Wednesday: Don't expect starter Tobias Myers to go very deep and trust the bullpen, which has been so good all season. And use Devin Williams for more than three outs if necessary.

Doolittle: The Brewers need to play a clean game. They were among baseball's elite defensive teams all season, but the Mets capitalized on a game-winning error in a five-run inning in Game 1 and scored a game-winning run on an error in Game 2. If the Brewers can keep clean and get into the middle innings, they can roll out their A bullpen and put their athletes to work on the basepaths. You just have to avoid mistakes at the start of the rally.

Rogers: Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. Since the fifth-inning implosion in Game 1 — helped by poor defense — the Brewers' pen has pitched a game-wide shutout. Tuesday's game ended with 4⅓ scoreless innings and Wednesday's game ended with 5⅓ shutout innings. It's clear that manager Pat Murphy won't extend his starters beyond three or four innings, as evidenced by his early hooks of Freddy Peralta and Frankie Montas, so the pen will be huge in Game 3 one way or another.

Who will move to the NLDS?

Schönfield: The Mets have overcome adversity all season – the slow start, the injury to Kodai Senga that nearly cost the Braves the game on Monday before Francisco Lindor's dramatic home run. I'm a little worried about their bullpen situation late in the game, but I still believe in this offense. The Mets win 4-3 and then face the Phillies in a big NL East showdown.

Doolittle: This is the Brewers' time. Milwaukee has too many bullpen weapons and more ways to win on offense. On Wednesday we began to see these differences come to light. If the Mets don't start fast in Game 3, I think the Brewers will win… and Milwaukee's starter Myers was outstanding.

Live updates

Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis on Game 3.