Top picks from the NFL betting splits for Sunday October 6th

Today we have an extensive Week 5 NFL slate with 12 games to choose from. Let's examine where the smart money points for three matchups using our VSiN NFL betting splits, sourced directly from DraftKings and updated every 10 minutes.

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The Bills (3-1) had just been steamrolled by the Ravens 35-10 and failed to cover as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Texans (3-1) narrowly held on against the Jaguars 24-20, but were unable to maintain themselves as 5.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public is all over the Bills putting a short spread in a “right” spot. Although 67% of the spread bets are on Buffalo, we have seen this line move to Texans -1. This signals a clear reverse “dog to favorite” line with Houston, as the line has shifted in their favor despite them being the unpopular side. The Texans have notable Fade the Trendy Dog contra value, receiving just 33% of the spread bets in one of the highest-betted early games of the day. Houston has corresponding betting value as a short favorite in a game with a high point total (47.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. The Bills suffer several serious injuries and are without WR Khalil Shakir, DT Ed Oliver, DT Austin Johnson and S Taylor Rapp. Buffalo will also be without pass rusher Von Miller, who is suspended. The pros seem to be going for a higher scoring game here, as the overall score has increased from 46.5 to 47.5. The over gets about 80% of the bets and dollars.

The Raiders (2-2) just defeated the Browns 20-16 to win as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, the Broncos (2-2) just defeated the Jets 10-9 to win as 8-point road dogs. This line started with Denver listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Sharps took the points with Denver at Mile High and took the Broncos from -1.5 to -2.5. Several stores are even approaching the key number -3. Essentially all movement and liability rested with Denver, with no buyback with Las Vegas. The Broncos receive 66% of the spread bets and 73% of the spread dollars, indicating public support but also a lot of smart money in the form of a Pro and Joe betting split. The Broncos have a big lead on defense, allowing just 13.8 PPG while the Raiders give up 24.3 PPG. Las Vegas is also dealing with some serious injuries and will be without WR Davante Adams and RB Zamir White, while DE Maxx Crosby and two offensive linemen (Thayer Munford and Dylan Parham) are questionable. Those looking to follow the Broncos' sharp trend but also want to hedge around a key number should consider Denver on the money line at -145. Wiseguys also hit the under, dropping the total from 38 to 36. The under receives only 49% of the bets but 61% of the dollars, a significantly contrarian betting split. The outdoor division unders are 6-2 and 229-183 (56%) this season with a 7% ROI since 2021. If the total is 39 or less (low total unders), the Under is 5-2 this season and 37-27 (58%) with an ROI of 10% over the last two seasons.

The Cowboys (2-2) narrowly held off the Giants 20-15, but failed to cover as 5.5-point away favorites. On the other hand, the Steelers (3-1) narrowly lost to the Colts 27-24 and lost as 2.5-point away favorites. This line started with Dallas listed as a short 1-point road favorite. The crowd is represented around “America's Team” at an attractive short chalk price and 60% of the spread bets are backing the Cowboys. Even though Dallas received nearly two-thirds of the spread bets, we saw that line completely change to Steelers -2.5. Several deals are now increasing Steelers -2.5 (-115) or have officially increased to -3. Essentially all the movement and liability falls to Pittsburgh, who absorbs sharp “dog-to-favorite” line moves. The Steelers offer remarkable value, receiving just 40% of the spread bets in a nationally televised primetime Sunday Night Football game. Mike Tomlin has an ATS of 56-41 (58%) with a 13% ROI after a loss as coach of the Steelers. Pittsburgh has a big lead defensively, allowing just 13.3 PPG (2nd), while Dallas has given up 26 PPG (27th). The Steelers are also a valuable favorite outside of the conference, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team that is expected to win. Anyone looking to follow the Steelers' strong move but also protect themselves from a close game for the key No. 3 could opt to play Pittsburgh on the money line at -145. The Cowboys are expected to be without two of their top defenders, Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, due to injuries. The total started at 42.5 and rose to 44. We are now seeing some buybacks below 44 with some trades falling back to 43.5. The bottom gets only 51% of the bets but 70% of the dollars, a clear “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split. Primetime unders are 168-115 (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2019. Shawn Hochuli, the lead referee, is historically 57% under unders.