BJP faces third term in Haryana, J&K elects national conference-Congress

1. The predictions about the election outcome are being turned upside down: the BJP is in the lead with 49 out of 90 seats in Haryana. The Congress is trailing by 34 votes but is holding its head high and saying it can still win.

2. Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party, which had high hopes of carving a niche for itself in Haryana, buoyed by its victories in neighboring Delhi and Punjab, has failed to open its account. However, the party had some success in Jammu and Kashmir, winning the Doda seat.

3. In Jammu and Kashmir, which is electing its government after a decade, the National Conference-Congress alliance is ahead with 52 of the 90 seats – well ahead of the halfway mark of 46. The BJP is ahead with 27 seats – almost all of them in Jammu.

4. The National Conference is ahead with 44 of the 47 seats in Kashmir and is recording an excellent performance not only in the Kashmir valley but also in the Pir Panjal and Chenab valleys.

5. The Congress, which had hoped for a landslide victory in Haryana, a result that was also predicted in election polls, has not fared well in Jammu and Kashmir either. The party is leading in just eight of J&K's 90 seats, including in the Kashmir Valley, riding the pro-National Conference wave. In Jammu, where she was expected to take on the BJP, she failed to stay ahead by even a margin.

6. The other major setback in the Valley was reserved for Mehbooba Mufti's Peoples Democratic Party, which polls showed would play the role of kingmaker in a split verdict. The party, which is expected to win at least eight seats, is only ahead by two seats.

7. J&K's smaller parties and independents, many of which are supported by the BJP, are leading with nine seats. State BJP leaders had said that their record would increase the party's score and that the party would be able to form a government along with the five MLAs nominated by the governor.

8. While the Congress is yet to accept its setback in Haryana, jubilant BJP leaders attribute it to the party's infighting and its treatment of Dalits and backward castes, pointing to the solid support of Bhupinder Hooda instead of Kumari Selja.

9. What also worked in the BJP's favor was the unexpected turnaround in Jat votes. The Jats and the farming community, reportedly upset over the farm laws, the treatment of women wrestlers following sexual harassment allegations against a BJP MP and the Agniveer scheme, were expected to vote for the Congress.

10. But the BJP is ahead in 70 percent of seats dominated by Jat members – 17 out of 33. The Congress is ahead in just 14 in nine out of 17 seats.

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