Important surveys in India cause surprises

The northern Indian state of Haryana and Indian-administered Kashmir caused surprises on Tuesday as votes were counted in parliamentary elections there.

Most exit polls had predicted a deadlock in the Kashmir assembly, but an alliance of the main opposition, the Congress and the National Conference Party (NCP), is on track for a landslide in the 90-member House of Representatives and is close to forming a government.

In Haryana, which also has 90 seats, predictions of a landslide Congress victory by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were dashed, proving pollsters wrong.

The BJP-led government appears to be on track to return to Haryana for a rare third consecutive term.

The polls in Kashmir are significant because they are the first general elections there in a decade – and also the first since the federal government revoked the region's autonomy in 2019 and converted the former state into a federally administered territory.

Unlike Kashmir, over which India and its neighbor Pakistan have fought three wars, Haryana does not often make global headlines.

But the small state attracts a lot of attention in India because it borders the capital Delhi. Along with Punjab, it is called the breadbasket of India due to its large wheat and rice farms, and the city of Gurugram is home to offices of some of the biggest global brands such as Google, Dell and Samsung.

The results will be closely watched in India as they are the state's first parliamentary elections since the summer general election. Analysts expect Tuesday's results to set the tone as the country faces more regional elections in the next few months, including in the state of Maharashtra and Delhi.

Perhaps the best description of what happened in the state comes from political scientist Sandeep Shastri.

“The Congress has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory,” he told the BBC.

For weeks there have been fears in political circles that the BJP was facing a huge wave of anti-incumbency, and analysts said confidently that the party's government was on the verge of exit.

With most post-election polls predicting a landslide for the Congress, many said the party must lose the election.

Shastri blames overconfidence and infighting within the party for the Congress defeat.

“They were confident they would win and became complacent. The BJP, on the other hand, quietly worked on the problems on the ground and successfully fought against the incumbent party to come back to power.”

Both parties tried to build social coalitions by bringing together different caste groups – the results showed that the majority chose to support the BJP.

Shastri says the differences between two senior Congress leaders – Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja, who were contesting for the chief minister's post – did not go down well with voters.

However, Tuesday's count was controversial with Congress accusing the Election Commission (EC) of delaying updating the figures on its website.

After party leader Jairam Ramesh submitted a complaint letter to the Election Commission, Selja said her party could still be ahead.

“I'm telling you… there's something going on. If all goes well, Congress will form the government in Haryana,” she said.

But with the numbers not on their side, that will likely remain a dream.

The EC has rejected the allegations.

The Hindu nationalist BJP has little support in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, but enjoys enormous support in the Hindu-dominated Jammu region. And the results reflect this divide. But the Congress-NC alliance has enough seats and is on track to form a government in the state.

The Modi government's 2019 decision to scrap Article 370 of the Constitution, which gave special status to Kashmir, and divide the state into two parts sent shock waves in the Valley, which elects 47 parliamentary seats.

At his election campaign rallies, Modi promised to restore “statehood” to the region. But as the results show, this failed to appease disgruntled voters.

Voter turnout in the region was surprisingly high – but as political analyst Sheikh Showkat Hussain says, they voted against the BJP and the removal of the region's special status.

“The BJP has made this election a kind of referendum on its decision (to abrogate Article 370). However, people voted for the stance of the regional parties,” he said.

Noor Mohammad Baba, another political analyst in Kashmir, said the results showed that the BJP's policies were “not popular” in the region.

“The result is a message to Delhi that they need to change their policy towards Jammu and Kashmir,” he added.

A surprising election result was the poor performance of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) under the leadership of former Kashmir Prime Minister Mehbooba Mufti.

Mufti, who previously ruled in a coalition with the BJP, managed to win only three seats.

In response to a question about her party's poor performance, she replied that it was the “decision of the people.”

“Winning or losing is part of politics. People feel that the Congress and the National Conference will give them a stable government and keep the BJP at bay. We respect their judgment,” she added.

Additional reporting by Auqib Javeed in Srinagar