When does Hurricane Milton hit Florida?

US officials are warning of the potentially life-threatening effects of Hurricane Milton as it barrels toward the Florida coast.

The category four hurricane is one of the strongest storms to form in the North Atlantic in recent years. It comes just two weeks after Hurricane Helene caused significant damage in the southeastern United States.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Milton to make landfall late Wednesday evening (local time) as an “extremely dangerous major hurricane.”

According to the latest forecasts, it could reach Florida sometime between 10:00 p.m. (02:00 GMT) and midnight on Wednesday.

According to the NHC's latest update, the hurricane could be downgraded to category three before making landfall in southern Sarasota.

Milton could strike near the city of Tampa, whose metropolitan area is home to more than three million people.

Meteorologists warn of torrential rain, flash floods, strong winds and possible storm surges that occur as water moves inland from the coast.

They say Milton could be the worst storm to hit the area in about a century, with a possible storm surge of 10-15 feet (3-4.5 m) and localized rainfall of up to 1.5 feet.

Hurricane Milton was located about 300 miles (485 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida, Wednesday morning. At this time, the maximum sustained wind speed was 160 mph (260 km/h).

Milton became a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday and moved steadily east through the Gulf of Mexico after passing over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Its strength has fluctuated slightly, reaching the strongest category five status on more than one occasion, although it is expected to weaken to a lower category before reaching the U.S. mainland.

The core of the hurricane is expected to pass over west-central Florida and a major storm surge is expected along a coastal strip of the state before making landfall.

On Tuesday evening, the NHC said the hurricane was “wobbling” southward, prompting forecasters to change its direction slightly. Even the most accurate forecasts tend to be off by about 100 kilometers when the storm is 36 hours away, forecasters say.

Milton is then said to traverse the peninsula before ending in the Atlantic Ocean.

Meteorologists warn that Hurricane Milton could also bring multiple tornadoes from isolated thunderstorms that could be triggered across central and southern Florida.

Floridians have been told to prepare for the state's largest evacuation effort in years, with Gov. Ron DeSantis warning that a “monster” is on the way.

Most counties are officially under a state of emergency, and evacuations have been ordered along Florida's west coast.

Civil protection authorities have issued a list and a map the evacuation orders.

Several large emergency shelters have also been prepared as a last resort for those stranded.

Airports in Milton's expected route have announced closures and congestion was observed as people began to leave their homes.

Hurricanes – sometimes known as cyclones or typhoons – are a type of tropical storm that forms in the North Atlantic. They bring strong winds and heavy rain.

When ocean air is warm and moist, it rises and then begins to cool – causing clouds to form.

Sometimes this rising air at the head of the hurricane can migrate faster than it can be replaced at the surface, reducing surface pressure.

The falling pressure causes the winds to accelerate, drawing in more air as the hurricane strengthens.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (Noaa) predicted that the 2024 hurricane season would be more active than usual. Rising average sea temperatures due to human-caused climate change are partly to blame, it said.

Hurricanes are divided into five categories based on their wind speed.

Milton was downgraded from a Category Five storm (the highest category) to a Category Four storm on Wednesday.

It is expected to be further downgraded to a category three hurricane before it makes landfall, according to the NHC.

Category three hurricanes bring wind speeds of up to 209 km/h and can damage trees and buildings, Noaa says.

Hurricane Milton rapidly strengthened as it passed over exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface temperatures are about 1-2°C above average.

Warmer water means hurricanes can absorb more energy, potentially leading to higher wind speeds.

A warmer atmosphere can also retain more moisture – up to about 7% for every 1°C increase in temperature. This means that rainfall from hurricanes can be more intense.

And global sea levels have risen in recent decades, largely thanks to global warming.

This increases the likelihood that a given storm surge will cause coastal flooding.

According to the U.S. government, average sea levels in Florida have risen more than 7 inches since 1970.

Quantifying the exact role of climate change in Hurricane Milton requires comprehensive scientific analysis.

But their rapid intensification fits with expectations about how these storms are changing in a warming world.