The Northern Lights forecast has been upgraded to “severe” for half of the US – when to see the Northern Lights this week

Ready for more views of the Northern Lights? In contrast to recent forecasts for possible, potential and probably weak aurora phenomena, there is something special to consider here: a “severe” geomagnetic storm.

Space weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have released a forecast for a G4 (severe) geomagnetic storm for Thursday, October 10 and Friday, October 11.

US states where the Northern Lights could be visible

“The Northern Lights could be visible across much of the northern half of the country and possibly as far south as Alabama and Northern California,” the Northern Lights warning says. That's exactly what the agency said ahead of May 10's sudden “solar superstorm,” possibly the most powerful aurora display in hundreds of years, which in practice turned out to be a G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm.

It's relatively rare for a G4-type geomagnetic storm to be predicted, so it's wise to prepare for a major spectacle – although it could be not only a stronger G5, but also a weaker G3. Here's how the scale works, according to NOAA:

• G2 storms (minor storms) are generally observed as far south as New York and Idaho.
• G3 (moderate) storms are generally observed as far south as Illinois and Oregon.
• G4 storms (severe storms) are generally observed as far south as Alabama and Northern California.
• G5 (extreme) storms are generally observed as far south as Florida and South Texas.

How to see the Northern Lights

Light pollution can make the northern lights difficult to see. Therefore, try to get out of the city into the rural sky and first check whether the weather is clear. If there are clouds, you won't see anything.

The best locations are places that appear dark on a light pollution map, preferably places that don't have a large city to the north. Excellent excursion destinations are the International Dark Sky Places, which include many state parks and US national parks.

How to photograph the Northern Lights

It is possible that you only have photographic auroras, which require a smartphone or camera to view. Here's what you can do with your smartphone to check if there are faint auroras nearby.

• Activate “Night Mode” which is enough to take a more impressive souvenir photo of the Northern Lights. This likely means a long exposure of between five and ten seconds, which is why the next three steps are essential.
• Use your main lens, NOT the super wide angle lens (which is inferior).
• Use a simple smartphone holder and a small tripod to prevent camera shake and keep your images sharp.
• Shoot in raw format, making it easier to enhance your photos with simple edits.

What is causing the Northern Lights this week?

The cause is a coronal mass ejection – a stream of charged particles from the Sun – that erupted from the Sun late on October 8 and is moving rapidly towards Earth. It is expected to arrive on October 10 after hurtling through space at speeds of 1,200 to 1,300 km/s, according to NOAA. “Upon arrival of this CME and throughout its passage, there is a potential for G4 (severe),” NOAA explains.

However, there is always uncertainty about predicting auroral phenomena, as NOAA states: “We will not know the characteristics of the CME until it arrives 1 million miles from Earth and its speed and magnetic intensity are measured by DSCOVR.” ACE- Satellites.”

For the latest updates, see NOAA's Aurora View Line, NOAA's 30-minute forecast, and their X account, where the latest updates are posted.

“Solar Maximum” news

On either side of the G4 geomagnetic storm warning issued by NOAA on October 9, two solar flares occurred on the Sun. An X-class X1.8 flare at 01:56 UTC was followed by an X1.4 burst at 15:47 UTC. They were discovered by Earth-orbiting satellites, including NASA's SOHO Observatory.

Geomagnetic activity peaks when the Sun is near “solar maximum” – the peak of its 11-year solar cycle – and near the equinox, when the Earth's axis is tilted sideways to the Sun. Both conditions are currently met.

The latest SWPC forecast suggests the sun will reach its solar maximum between August 2024 and January 2025. However, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and NASA announced on Tuesday, October 8, that a media conference call will be held on Tuesday, October 8, at 2 p.m. EDT. 15 to discuss the activity of the sun and the course of the solar cycle 25.

Either way, the high number of solar flares and CMEs and the frequent and powerful geomagnetic storms they cause are likely to continue until 2026.

I wish you clear skies and big eyes.