The Tesla robotaxi event comes after Elon Musk missed his deadlines for years

With Teslas With the highly anticipated Robotaxi event just hours away, investors will soon get a look at what CEO Elon Musk has dubbed “CyberCab.”

After a decade of unfulfilled promises to deliver autonomous vehicles capable of traveling reasonable distances safely without a human behind the wheel, there is great skepticism about what Tesla can achieve technologically and when its robotaxi might actually come to market.

Robotaxi Day, or “We, Robots,” event is scheduled to begin at 7:00 p.m. Pacific time at a Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, California, and will be livestreamed via X.

Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA, warned in an Oct. 4 preview that conditions on a closed track on a film studio lot could make a Tesla robotaxi look more advanced than it would in normal traffic and on public roads case would be. CFRA has a hold rating on the stock.

Tesla shares fell about 1% to $238.77 on Thursday. They are now down almost 4% for the year and more than 40% below their 2021 record.

The event comes a week after Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of 462,890, bringing the year-to-date figure to 1.35 million. For all of last year, Tesla reported 1.81 million deliveries.

Optimistic analysts at firms such as Wedbush, ARK and RBC Capital Markets expressed optimism in their reports about the company's ability to continue growing revenue over the long term while delivering high-tech products, including a long-delayed autonomous vehicle, humanoid robotics and other AI products. driven products and services.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management told CNBC's “Fast Money” on Wednesday that he would attend the event and expected to test the robotaxi.

Munster, a longtime Tesla bull, said he expects the company to introduce robotaxis in some cities by the end of 2025. He also expects Tesla to announce plans to produce an affordable electric vehicle, perhaps just a stripped-down version of its Model 3, and an electric van.

He said that while he expects the stock to fall after the event, it could “reach new highs” over the next two years as deliveries begin to rise.

Tesla was once considered a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles, but never managed to deliver or demonstrate robotaxi technology. The company is now considered a latecomer.

alphabet Waymo in the US and a number of Chinese companies now operate commercial robotaxi services.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a report Wednesday that if Tesla could launch a “Level 4” robotaxi, meaning it can drive without a driver behind the wheel, using the current “suite of hardware and software,” this would lead to costly costs. Per-mile advantage compared to competitors.

In addition to the missed deadlines, Tesla has had safety issues with its driver assistance systems, which are currently marketed as standard Autopilot and premium Full Self-Driving (Supervised) options.

Missy Cummings, a professor at George Mason University and director of the Mason Autonomy and Robotics Center, said Tesla executives should be able to say how they will solve a problem known as “phantom braking,” which refers to cases where vehicles with ADAS equipped vehicles allow you to brake unexpectedly, even when you are driving at highway speeds and there are no visible obstacles around you.

Tesla's phantom brake problems are the subject of an ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Cummings, who previously served as the regulator's senior safety adviser, told CNBC: “If they can't solve phantom braking for a Level 2 car, they can't solve it for a Level 4 or 5 vehicle.” 2 have driver assistance systems.

According to the NHTSA, as of 2021, there were 1,399 crashes in which Tesla's driver assistance systems activated within 30 seconds of the crash, and 31 of those collisions resulted in reported fatalities.

Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights, said Musk or other Tesla executives should be able to say exactly how they plan to use their vehicles in different weather conditions such as fog, rain, snow and lighting or in dark tunnels.

He also wants Tesla executives to say whether they will accept full liability for the operation of these vehicles, which he calls an “important requirement for a true robotaxi without human control.”

Finally, Abuelsamid wants to know whether Tesla plans to own and operate its robotaxis or lease or sell them to consumers and fleet operators.

“Many companies have made progress on the automated driving technology side,” Abuelsamid said. “But they failed when it came to finding a business model that could be profitable. Tesla has many challenges to overcome and I want to know how all the pieces fit together.”

REGARD: It will be another five years before we see a Waymo-like car from Tesla