Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction: Surprise alert?

The Oregon Ducks welcome the Ohio State Buckeyes to Eugene on Saturday evening. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. PST on NBC.

When the 2nd-ranked Buckeyes and the 3rd-ranked Ducks take the field, it will be the first-ever top-five matchup in Autzen Stadium history. These two have faced each other 10 times, with Ohio State leading the series 9-1. Oregon won the last meeting of 2021 at Ohio State 35-28.

Ohio State is on a winning streak in its first five games of 2024. With a 5-0 start, they outscored their opponents by 234:30 points. They are coming off a 35-7 win over Iowa.

The Ducks are 5-0 and have started to find their rhythm. They defeated Michigan State 31-10 in their last game.

Oregon vs Ohio State odds

The Ducks go into Saturday's showdown as slight underdogs. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Ohio State has a 3-point advantage. The over/under is set at 54 points.

It's rare to see the Oregon Ducks as underdogs at home. The last time the Ducks were not favored in a home game was in 2018 when they hosted the Washington Huskies. In that game, the Huskies were 3-point favorites, according to Vegas Insider. Oregon won 30-27 in overtime.

Speaking of teams that are favored in games in most cases: There is the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State entered this season as a +150 favorite to win the Big Ten Championship and had the second-best odds to win the national championship at +325 per ESPN bet.

Oregon vs. Ohio State preview

ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Ducks a 35.9 percent chance of winning against Ohio State.

This is very small considering that the difference in the game is only 3 points and the game is being played at Autzen Stadium. What gives Ohio State the advantage in the eyes of so many?

Ohio State's defense is committed to being the best in the country. They have only given up 6 points per game in their 5-0 start. This Buckeyes defense is stacked from the defensive line to the secondary. Oregon will have its hands full with edge rushers like JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Additionally, the Buckeyes' secondary was like Velcro. Cornerback Denzel Burke leads the Buckeyes in interceptions with 2. All three of these guys are projected to be early-round NFL draft picks.

When it comes to Ohio State's offense, unlike previous years, they rely on the running game. The running back duo of Quinshon Judkins and Treveyon Henderson have combined for 805 yards on the ground and nine rushing touchdowns. How can the Ducks counter this Buckeye attack and claim victory?

Ohio State may have a slight edge when it comes to talent on the field, but the Ducks can still hold their own at most positions. The position where Oregon appears to have a clear advantage is quarterback. To be fair to Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard, he may not have broken out this year because Ohio State won every game out of the gate and there was no reason to get pass happy.

Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel had a solid season and has a track record as a good college quarterback. However, he has been shaky in the red zone over the past two weeks with three interceptions. He has to clean this up for the Ducks to win. It will be interesting to see how he handles this Buckeye defense, as it is probably the best unit he has faced in his six-year college career.

Oregon vs Ohio State Score Prediction

The Oregon Ducks have lost a game at Autzen Stadium in the last five seasons, but they haven't played a team of Ohio State's quality. Oregon will have to rely on the running game with Jordan James. Ohio State will want to do the same with its running back duo, and that could wear down Oregon's defense. Ball control will be a crucial factor.

Every defense makes the other quarterback beat them and not just get hurt in the run game. In a tight, low-scoring game, the Ducks cover the 3 points and win outright.

Oregon 24, Ohio State 23.