MLB Playoffs 2024: What Mets and Dodgers need to do to win NLCS

The 2024 National League Championship Series matchup is set!

Starting Sunday, the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers meet, and a trip to the World Series is at stake.

After the Mets booked their first NLCS trip since 2015 when Francisco Lindor delivered a grand slam in Game 4 to knock out the Philadelphia Phillies, the Dodgers defeated the San Diego Padres with a 2-0 win in Game 5 of the NLDS at Los Angeles.

What have we learned about each of these teams so far? What does each side have to do to get a ticket to the Fall Classic? And who could be the NLCS difference maker? ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield explain everything.

Jump to: Mets | Dodgers

New York Mets

What's the most impressive thing about the Mets this postseason?

Castle: The Mets lineup is relentless. They may not match the star power of the Dodgers, but their roster is as deep as any in baseball. They can beat you from 1 to 9. They carry out clever attacks. They have a knack for making big hits in the clutch. And they pounce on bullpens. Look no further than Game 4 of the NLDS when, after loading the bases against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez in each of the first two innings, Francisco Lindor hit the grand slam in the sixth against Carlos Estevez, Philadelphia's best reliever. One day it will be Lindor. Next it's Mark Vientos or Pete Alonso or Brandon Nimmo or Jose Iglesias. Or someone else. There are no holes in the lineup, and this could be a NL pennant-winning recipe.

Schönfield: The Mets actually have the most starting pitching depth of any team remaining in the playoffs, with six reasonable options if you include Kodai Senga (who started Game 1 against the Phillies but is still underutilized). Sean Manaea threw a gem with seven scoreless innings in NLDS Game 3 against the Phillies, and the Mets are winning right now when he pitches – they're 16-4 in his last 20 starts. Jose Quintana has allowed just one unearned run in 11 innings in two playoff starts, and Luis Severino, David Peterson and Tylor Megill round out the options, although Peterson has also proven to be a valuable relief option. With three days off before Game 1, the Mets can restart, get some much-needed rest and figure out which of the starters comes out of the box.

Why will it work (or not) against the Dodgers in the NLCS?

Castle: The Dodgers bullpen has been impressive in the NLDS, but relying on bullpen games won't be sustainable against the Mets. Chances are New York will wear down the Dodgers' relief corps if Los Angeles doesn't get more innings from its starters. This means that Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty in particular will have to go deeper into the games. If not, the Mets will eventually solve the bullpen over the course of the seven-game series.

Schönfield: The Mets' other advantage is three left-handed hitters in Manaea, Quintana and Peterson. Shohei Ohtani is actually human against lefties – .867 OPS compared to 1.128 against righties. Max Muncy hit .172 against lefties. Freddie Freeman, when his ankle allows him to play, has been significantly worse against lefties (.250 average with less power versus .300 against righties). Gavin Lux hit .152 against the southpaw. That's why we may see Peterson back in the rotation after he pitched in relief against the Brewers and Phillies. The more lefty innings the Mets can throw against the Dodgers, the better.

Who is the one player who needs to deliver for the Mets to win the NL pennant?

Castle: The Mets' biggest weakness is the bullpen, making closer Edwin Diaz a key figure in this series. Díaz is the best reliever the Mets use. He has a triple-digit fastball and a wipeout slider. But this year has been a rollercoaster after missing all of 2023 with a torn ACL. He briefly lost his job in June. In June he was suspended for consuming adhesives. He was bad and he was great. He has been inconsistent of late despite heavy use, blowing a lead in Game 2 against the Phillies and walking two batters in the top of the ninth inning in Game 4 before getting back on track. The Mets need Díaz to dominate every time he is on the mound. This means being efficient and throwing punches. If he's the Díaz of old, the Mets have a weapon to shrink games.

Schönfield: Pete Alonso has to move on. He didn't have his best season and the strikeouts piled up in August and September as he fanned 74 times in 54 games. However, after hitting just four opposing home runs in the regular season, all three of his playoff home runs went to right field as he hit .273/.433/.727 – and the seven must-love hits against a manageable eight strikeouts in seven games to. If he stays in that zone, the Mets will get the power bat they need in the middle of the lineup behind Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo.

Los Angeles Dodgers

What's the most impressive thing about the Dodgers this postseason?

Gonzalez: Your bullpen. Given the multitude of injuries their starters had suffered, the Dodgers knew they would rely heavily on their backup players in October. And so far they've responded, most notably by shutting out the Padres to save their season in Game 4. The Dodgers are heading into this postseason with a three-man rotation and all three starters – Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler – have had some issues. But the Dodgers also have up to seven highly effective relievers they can use to help relieve them.

Schönfield: The Dodgers are showing… resilience? That hasn't exactly been their strength in recent postseasons. Although the Dodgers won the NL West, most picked the Padres to win the series, especially after San Diego took a two-to-one lead. But Dave Roberts and the relievers executed the bullpen play perfectly in Game 4 to advance to Game 5. They didn't let the Padres' antics get them down. They won despite a disabled Freddie Freeman. They've shown they can win games where Ohtani doesn't have to be Superman. Maybe this is the year, in a postseason where few expected the Dodgers to win.

Why will it work (or not) against the Mets in the NLCS?

Gonzalez: Just look at how the Mets got here: With Francisco Lindor's sixth-inning grand slam off Carlos Estevez, who had largely excelled as the Phillies' closer since being traded before the trade deadline. The Mets appear to have something special going on, and much of their magic has manifested itself late. The Mets have won six of nine games, starting with the Sept. 30 doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves, which was their regular season finale. Five of those wins came from behind, three of them after the seventh inning.

Schönfield: Okay, resilience is nice, but at some point they're going to need better results when they first pitch. Winning a five-game series with two days off while relying largely on the bullpen is one thing, but doing so in a seven-game series (with the same two days off) is much more difficult . The Mets have shown their own resilience, too, with dramatic comebacks as they beat the Braves to clinch a playoff spot, beat the Brewers to advance, and then eliminated the Phillies – all against three of the closers Game.

Who is the one player who needs to deliver for the Dodgers to win the NL pennant?

Gonzalez: I'm going to mention a name you probably didn't expect: Enrique Hernandez. The Dodgers brought him in specifically for these moments, and he showed why with a huge home run in Friday's Game 5 win. They believe he will be up to the challenge come October and he should get some playing time in this NLCS. His performance at the bottom of the order will be crucial in giving Ohtani opportunities with runners on base – a situation in which Ohtani has been known to excel in recent times.

Schönfield: Mookie Betts. We saw him break out of his postseason loss with home runs against the Padres, and he needs to keep going, especially given the left-handed starters the Mets can bring to the market (and especially given Freeman's availability and… Production is ongoing). give cause for concern).