Iran is conducting urgent diplomacy as it prepares for Israel's response to missile attacks

CNN
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The Iranian government is extremely nervous and is making urgent diplomatic efforts with countries in the Middle East to assess whether they can reduce the scale of Israel's response to the rocket attack earlier this month and – if that fails – help protect Tehran, sources familiar tell The Matter told CNN.

Iran's concerns stem from uncertainty over whether the US can persuade Israel not to attack Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities, and from the fact that its main proxy militia in the region, Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks sources said.

The US has been consulting with Israel about how it will respond to Iran's Oct. 1 attack, and US officials have made clear that they do not want Israel to target Iranian nuclear facilities or oil fields. US President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, his first conversation in nearly two months, and told him that Israel's retaliation should be “proportionate.”

U.S. allies in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, have also expressed concern to the U.S. about a possible attack on Iranian oil facilities, which could have negative economic and environmental impacts across the region, one said Arab diplomat CNN.

The Biden administration is deeply concerned that ongoing attacks between Iran and Israel, which began earlier this year after Israel attacked Iran's alleged consulate building in Damascus, could lead to a major regional war that also drags the United States into it become, too.

A large part of the concern is that U.S. influence over Israel appears to have steadily declined over the past year. Similar to its operations in the Gaza Strip, Israel has increasingly ignored U.S. calls for more restraint in Lebanon, where Israel's intense bombing and ground offensive have killed over 1,400 people since late last month.

Israel also did not consult with the U.S. before it carried out a massive attack last month in which thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives exploded, or before Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated in Beirut and a delicate cease-fire proposal, that Israel had submitted was upended by the US and France less than 48 hours earlier.

The Israeli security cabinet has not yet made a decision on how to proceed, an Israeli official told CNN on Friday. And while the gap between U.S. and Israeli positions is narrowing, it may not stay that way, a U.S. official said.

“We actually have no way of knowing whether they voted or not,” a senior administration official said of the Israeli Cabinet discussions, expressing skepticism about the level of transparency about what Israel shares with the United States. The official suggested that one should not attach too much importance to “the machinations” of the Israeli government.

As CNN reported, Israel had given no assurances until last week that it would not launch attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Israel has been planning attacks on Iran's nuclear capabilities for decades and simulated an attack on it in a military exercise just two years ago. Israel is also suspected of carrying out assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and Iran's nuclear facilities have been targeted by cyberattacks likely originating from Israel – the most famous being the Stuxnet virus, which was able to penetrate Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.

Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant strongly warned Iran on Wednesday about his country's reaction.

“Our punch will be powerful, precise and, above all, surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how it happened,” Gallant said.

Gulf states are largely committed to remaining on the sidelines of the conflict, the Arab diplomat said. While Iran has publicly warned that all parties supporting Israel will be treated as aggressors, it is also unlikely that Iran's neighbors would explicitly stand by Tehran in the event of an Israeli attack.

But Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have told both the United States and Iran that they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, the Arab diplomat and another source familiar with the matter said told CNN. Jordan will also protect its airspace from unauthorized intrusions, regardless of origin, a Jordanian official said.

The US does not believe Iran wants to get involved in an all-out war with Israel, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week that Netanyahu “is the only one who wants a war and wants to set the region on fire. “stay in power.”

But the U.S. has still pressed Tehran through back channels to adjust its response in the event of an Israeli attack, an official said.

While Qatar regularly speaks with the Iranians and relays their statements to the U.S., the U.S. official said that “at the end of the day, we just don't know what (Iran) will do.” Key voices in Iran will have different ideas about whether and how to respond to Israel, but that will depend on the scale and scope of the highly anticipated Israeli move, another US official said.

This official said that messages from Iran have been consistent both publicly and privately since Tehran launched its rocket barrage into Israel earlier this month and that there has been no significant change in messages.

Iran is particularly interested in getting help from Saudi Arabia in preventing an Israeli attack and using its influence with Washington to help find a solution to the crisis, the Arab diplomat told CNN.

Representatives from each country met three times in less than a month, and Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to “consult on regional developments” and “try to stop the Zionist regime's crimes in Lebanon and Gaza.” he told local media.

The world is watching Israel's every move and considering how to respond. But at least until sunset Saturday, Israel will stand still to observe Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and Judaism's holiest day of the year. And while it is not impossible for Israel to take action, shops, restaurants and other services will be closed, public transport will not be operational and even the country's main airport – Ben Gurion in Tel Aviv – will be closed.

CNN's Kayla Tausche, Dania Karni and Katie Bo Lillis contributed to the reporting.