How often will you use the snow shovel?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its official winter weather outlook on Thursday. To no one's surprise, NOAA is advocating slightly above average temperatures in the Northeast in December, January, and February! The last five winters in Providence have all had above average temperatures.

The main factor behind this forecast is related to the transition of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phase away from El Niño to La Niña. Typically during a La Niña phase, the jet stream is positioned to favor warmer than average temperatures in New England.

When it comes to precipitation, the Northeast is equally likely to experience above or below average precipitation. This is because La Niña is associated with more volatile storm tracks compared to El Niño. The region is less likely to get stuck in a pattern one way or another, unlike last winter when the Northeast was stuck in a very soggy and wet pattern.

What does all this mean when it comes to snow? Forecasters expect there will be a slow transition to La Niña, resulting in a weak La Niña or near ENSO neutral weather during the snow season. In recent years, all of southern New England has tended to experience near-average snowfall, even with above-average temperatures. Therefore, the likelihood of another dreary winter like the last two years is rather low.

Stay tuned to Storm Team 10 as winter approaches!