Chicago Winter Forecast: The La Niña pattern could bring colder, wetter conditions

CHICAGO – Winter is still a few months away, but signs point to a colder and wetter winter than the Chicago area experienced in the 2023-24 season.

The 2023-24 winter season featured an El Niño weather pattern, and it was one for the record books. The winter months were characterized by above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall. Last winter was Chicago's fifth warmest on record.

Meteorologists predict that the coming winter will be different. A weak La Niña is expected to develop, potentially affecting temperatures, precipitation and even snow across the United States.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, there is a 60 percent chance of La Niña conditions occurring this fall and are expected to last from January to March 2025.

La Niña is a natural climate pattern that affects weather on a global scale. According to NOAA, under normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow west along the equator, carrying warm water from South America to Asia. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that disrupt these normal conditions.

During La Niña, trade winds are stronger than usual, pushing warm water into Asia. This causes an upwelling off the west coast of America that brings cold water to the surface. This cold water in the Pacific can then influence the position of the jet stream.

La Niña weather patterns can cause drought in the southern United States and heavy rainfall and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. Winter temperatures are typically warmer than normal in the southern United States and cooler in the north.

For Chicago, this weather pattern could potentially result in near-normal or cooler-than-average winter temperatures in addition to above-average precipitation. However, this is not a guarantee that there will be more snow. Temperatures both above and on the surface must still be cold enough for snow to fall and stick to the ground.

All we can be confident about is that the coming winter will likely be colder and wetter than the last.