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Ball State Football vs. Vanderbilt: Scouting Report, Score Prediction

Posted on by Kennedy
Ball State Football vs. Vanderbilt: Scouting Report, Score Prediction

Ball State football heads to SEC territory for its final non-conference game of the regular season.

Ball State (2-4, 1-2 MAC) plays Vanderbilt (4-2, 2-1 SEC) on Saturday at 7 p.m. EDT. Both teams picked up conference wins on the road in their most recent contests, with Ball State defeating Kent State 37-35 and Vanderbilt winning at Kentucky 20-13.

The Commodores are still going strong after pulling off one of the most shocking upsets of the season, a 40-35 home win over then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 5. It was Vanderbilt's first victory over the Crimson Tide in 40 years and perhaps the greatest victory in program history. Once an afterthought in the SEC, the win established Vanderbilt as a legitimate force and was eventually removed from the conference's cellar.

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Ball State has already faced a team this season that was riding on the momentum of a decisive win. James Madison beat North Carolina 70-50 in Chapel Hill one week before dominating the Cardinals 63-7. Obviously, Ball State would most like to be the team to get that decisive win, and given the season Vanderbilt is currently having, a win on Saturday would count as such.

Here is our scouting report and score prediction for Ball State at Vanderbilt:

Can Ball State slow down Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt offense?

Vanderbilt's pistol-based spread option offense has caused problems for opposing defenses all season. QB Diego Pavia executes the plan perfectly and brings undeniable confidence and pride to the offense.

The Commodores don't get many yards. They rank 96th in the FBS in total offense with 353.8 yards per game, but are still 28th in the FBS with 34.7 points per game. Where Vanderbilt shuts down opposing defenses is their ability to control the tempo and run down the clock with long, sustained offensive attacks. Vanderbilt held the ball in a whopping 42:08 win over Alabama.

Coincidentally, Vanderbilt is just one spot behind Ball State in time of possession. The Cardinals are 13th and the Commodores are 14th in the TOP, with both teams having the ball about 32 minutes per game. However, Ball State's high ranking in time of possession likely has more to do with the defense giving up points quickly than the offense's willingness to waste time.

Can the Ball State offense handle the physicality of an SEC defense?

In Ball State's 62-0 loss at Miami (FL) in Week 3, the Cardinals' offense was overwhelmed by the physicality of the Hurricanes' defense. Miami's front seven dominated the trenches, slowing down the running game and pressuring Kadin Semonza on almost every dropback.

Ball State's offensive line will have its hands full again this week. While Vanderbilt is far from the best defense in the SEC, physically it is a big step up from the defenses of Western Michigan and Kent State. The Commodores have a top-50 rushing defense in FBS (122.7 yards allowed per game). The pass defense is now allowing 219.3 yards per game and has reached the opposing QB twelve times in six games.

Ball State has one of the most experienced offensive lines in college football and has experience in the SEC road environment, with most of them playing at Georgia and Kentucky last season. Vanderbilt's defense isn't as good as Miami's, but it's probably the most talented defense Ball State has left on its roster.

Can Ball State take care of the ball?

Turnovers have hurt Ball State in its last two losses. The Cardinals have won three times each against James Madison and Western Michigan and have a minus-three turnover margin this season.

Vanderbilt, on the other hand, has a turnover margin of plus-six, ranking 16th in the FBS. The Commodores are also one of only 21 FBS teams with multiple defensive touchdowns this season. Her ability to create and capitalize on turnovers makes her a lethal opponent against a Ball State team that has struggled to control the ball of late.

Just like Pavia did against Alabama, Semonza will need to play confident, mistake-free football if the Cardinals want to have a chance in this game.

Ball State Football vs Vanderbilt Score Prediction

Vanderbilt 28 – Ball State 10: Vanderbilt has more momentum than it has in a long time and will look to keep it going with a convincing win on Saturday. Their offensive scheme is difficult for defenses to manage, and the Ball State defense has struggled to deal with every scheme that has been thrown at them. The Commodores won't be able to compete with groups like Miami and James Madison thanks to a slower pace of play, but they're playing with too much confidence right now to let Ball State come in and get their own win.

Contact Cade Hampton by email at [email protected] or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CadeHamp10.

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