Why the race between Trump and Harris looks so incredibly close

Political analyst Samuel Lubell introduced the concept of Sun and Moon parties in 1951. The Sun Party is the majority party, and “within the majority party the problems of a given time are fought out; while the minority party shines in the reflected glow of the heat thus generated.”

Franklin D. Roosevelt's Democratic Party was the Party of the Sun for two generations, until the start of the Reagan majority. When Bill Clinton signed welfare reform and (falsely) declared, “The era of big government is over,” he reflected the reality of that transformation.

In the early 2000s, the GOP reached lunar status again. “But,” like David Brooks mentioned in 2011“Something strange happened. No party took the lead. … Both parties have become minority parties at the same time. We live in the age of two moons and no sun.”

This dynamic only intensified as politicians and voters accepted the new abnormality as normal. It's hard to tell if you look too closely at certain elections, but in hindsight the trend becomes clear.

George W. Bush ran as the Sun Party candidate in 2000 and won by the narrowest of margins. In fact, “red” and “blue” are also used to describe Republicans, Democrats, and the political leanings of the states became an integral part of our politics this year. It may seem like a trivial thing, but I think that the red versus blue rhetoric has accelerated polarization by solidifying the idea that partisanship is a kind of identity.

Bush won re-election in 2004 by embracing the two-moon system and increasing voter turnout among his political base by emphasizing culture war issues, chief among them gay marriage and the impulse to support a wartime president.

The election of Barack Obama in 2008 obscured all of this due to the uniqueness of his candidacy and Bush's unpopularity amid a financial crisis and war fatigue. However, it is worth remembering that Obama never leaned toward the center as a candidate. He won re-election in 2012 with a brilliant grassroots turnout strategy that motivated millions of low-turnout voters young voters and minority voters.

In 2016, the Donald Trump-led GOP pursued the same strategy in reverse, producing millions of low-propensity people white voters without a college degree.

One result of this dynamic is that parties increasingly do not mind offending or angering those they view as irrelevant “enemy” voters. In fact, the outrage of the opposition becomes a strategic goal, because in times of polarization, the outrage of the enemy strengthens partisan political commitment on one's own side. This requires ever more apocalyptic rhetoric about the consequences of defeat.

More importantly, what happens in campaigns doesn't stay there. Electoral strategies become dominant philosophies. Parties that operate on the theory that they just need a larger base to win are beholden to core supporters in office.

At least rhetorically and stylistically, Trump's administration was distinguished by his constant pandering to his biggest fans. Antagonizing his opponents was the essence of his presidency.

In 2020, Joe Biden ran as the Sun Party candidate. He had his base supporters locked up because of their intense hatred of Trump. But he owed his lead to his voters, who were nostalgic for normality.

Unfortunately, after his election, Biden took the center's desire for normalcy for granted and outsourced politics to his base, believing he could be a transformative president rather than the caretaker he had implicitly promised to be. How moderate Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia was upset Say it“No one elected him FDR; They elected him to be normal and stop the chaos.”

If you pull back the telescope you can see two moons wreaking havoc on the political tides. Each party rises to power in a state of simultaneous overconfidence in its political mandate and panic that its hold on power will be short-lived. So they do everything they can to appease the base and antagonize the opposition, so that their fear of losing the next election becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. That's why the White House and Congress are constantly changing hands.

Part of the reason this unprecedentedly tied race is so difficult to obstruct is that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are scrounging for votes in different universes. Harris repeats Biden's strategy of putting dissatisfied voters in the middle. Her problem is that until five minutes ago she was widely seen as a supporter of the Democrats' hardcore base; At least Biden seemed like a moderate democrat.

Trump, on the other hand I couldn't care less about the voters who don't like him and his antics. It's aimed at people who just want it more cowbell.

Regardless of who wins, it's clear we won't see the sun for a while.

@JonahDispatch