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Here's who's winning between Trump and Harris in the latest presidential polls

Posted on by Kennedy
Here's who's winning between Trump and Harris in the latest presidential polls

Topline

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seemingly dead heat with just over two weeks to go until the election. That's according to at least six polls from the past week that showed Harris with a narrow lead, and three others that showed Trump with a narrow lead — even though the key swing states are virtually tied.

Important facts

Trump leads 48% to 46% (margin of error 3.1) in a CNBC poll of registered voters released Thursday, and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters Wednesday ( Margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump's favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

According to a HarrisX/Forbes poll (margin of error 2.5) released Wednesday, Trump leads Harris by two points among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, 51% to 49%, and he is one point higher . 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.

Several other recent polls show Harris ahead: In a Monmouth University poll of 802 registered voters conducted Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47% to 44% lead over Trump Among respondents who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote, they planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% did not vote for a candidate.

In an Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters, also released Wednesday (margin of error 3), Harris is up three points, 49% to 46%, with third-party candidates on the ballot and respondents given the option of “other , “I'm not sure” or “wouldn't vote,” a drop of one point from the groups' previous poll from Oct. 12-15.

Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult's weekly poll released Tuesday, in line with last week's results but down from her 51% to 45% lead in the two polls before last week.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll, also released Tuesday, showed Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points if rounded numbers are used, within the poll's two-point margin of error). ; Last week's Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

In a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters Oct. 14-18 (margin of error 3.1), Harris is up one point, 45% to 44%, as Trump has narrowed the margins since the groups' last poll August, in which Harris had a five-point lead.

Harris also led Trump by just one point in the Emerson College poll of likely voters released Friday, after Harris had a two-point lead in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

Harris has squandered Trump's lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight's weighted polling average.

Who is likely to win the election: Harris or Trump?

According to FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, Trump is favored to win 51 times out of 100, compared to 49 for Harris. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow lead of 52.8/46.9, but recently wrote that he has “never seen an election where the forecast was near 50/50 for longer.”

Big number

0.2. That's how many points Harris is ahead of Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics poll average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's average shows Harris with a 1.8-point lead, and Nate Silver sees Harris 1.6 points higher in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

According to the Silver Bulletin, Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, and both are tied in Pennsylvania. However, all states have single-digit margins, so the race is still effectively a dead heat.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, that lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% supported Harris, compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said , they weren't sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous peaks for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll . The survey had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Polls leading up to the debate showed that Harris's rise in poll numbers appeared to have plateaued, including a Sept. 3-5 NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters that showed Harris leading 49% to 48 % ahead of Trump, compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters across all demographic groups viewed Harris' performance in the September 10 debate positively. Overall, 67% said she did well, compared to 40% who said the same goes for Trump. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris was up 52% ​​to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters , essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of defying calls from his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to formally nominate her in a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris' surge in the polls coincides with a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm is at 71%. stagnates. according to a Monmouth University survey released Aug. 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points – but 12% still decide (Forbes)

Swing state polls for the 2024 election: Latest polls show Trump in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump rises 1 point in latest poll – while Harris struggles with Latinos (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump leads in latest poll – but undecided voters could influence results (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump rises 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in latest poll (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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