Indiana vs. Washington score prediction by an expert football model

A remarkable Big Ten football matchup begins Saturday as No. 13 Indiana looks to maintain its perfect season against Washington in Week 9 of college football. Let's take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects results and picks winners.

Thanks to college football's best offense, Indiana moved to 7-0 for the second time in program history, but quarterback Kurtis Rourke will not play in this game after injuring his thumb last week, paving the way for Tayven Jackson to do so to command strong attack.

Washington fell to 2-2 in Big Ten play after suffering a nasty 40-16 loss at Iowa last weekend and heads into this first of three critical road tests against ranked conference opponents.

What does the analysis suggest when the Hoosiers and Huskies meet in this Big Ten matchup?

To do this, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview the Indiana vs. Washington matchup in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the Models give the Hoosiers a key lead over the Huskies this week.

SP+ predicts Indiana will defeat Washington by a margin of a expected score 32 to 22 and win the game as expected Lead of 10 points included.

The model gives the Hoosiers a strong 73 percent chance of the overall victory in the game.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a win rate of 52.1 after being 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Indiana is a 6.5 point favorite against Washington, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total below 53.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Indiana at -210 and for Washington +172 win directly.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

If you do, you'll be in the company of a host of bettors heading into this week's game against the Hoosiers, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Indiana gets 74 percent of betting to win the game and cover the spread to stay undefeated.

The other one 26 percent of bets assume Washington will either win the game in an upset or keep the game under a touchdown in a loss.

Indiana was 31.3 points better than his opponents' average in home games so far this season.

And the Hoosiers were 26.7 points better than the opponent on average in the last three games.

On average, Washington had problems on the road 10.7 points worse than the opponents when you are not at home this season.

But the Huskies have averaged 5.7 points worse than the opponent overall in the last three games.

Most other analytical models also favor the Hoosiers beating the Huskies this week.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Indiana is expected to win the game by a majority 83.8 percent the computer's latest simulations of the matchup.

This leaves Washington as the expected favorite in the remaining game 16.2 percent by Sims.

Indiana is expected to be 14.8 points better than Washington on the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the model's latest forecast.

Indiana is fourth among Big Ten teams with one 62.7 percent chance according to FPI metrics to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

This model gives the Hoosiers an overall win prediction of 10.8 games this season.

Washington has one 46.8 percent chance to host a bowl game in 2024, according to the Index's calculations.

FPI gives the Huskies an overall win prediction of 5.5 games in '24.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12pm ET | 9 a.m. PT
TV: Big Ten Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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