Donald Trump is ahead of Harris in a major poll for the first time since August

Republican candidate Donald Trump is narrowly ahead of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since August in average national polls from aggregator RealClearPolling.

As of early Monday, Trump was in the lead by a narrow margin – he was ahead by 0.1 percentage points at 48.5 percent, compared to Harris at 48.4 percent.

Polls measure the popular vote. A candidate can win the election but still lose the election if he or she fails to receive 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes, a number based on each state's number of delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives. According to FiveThirtyEight's Electoral College simulations of the election results, Trump would win the Electoral College 54 times out of 100, while Harris would be victorious 45 times out of 100 as of Monday morning.

Trump's narrow lead contrasts with his position against his then-rival, President Joe Biden, this time in the 2020 election. At the same point in the race, Biden led by a comfortable 7.5 points. According to RealClearPolling's average at the time, Trump had 43.6 percent support while Biden had 51.1 percent.

In 2016, then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton led Trump by 4.6 points, with 47.1 percent support versus 42.5 percent for the latter, although Trump would go on to win that election.

“President Trump is defeated by Kamala Harris, and voters know that America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of rising inflation, an out-of-control border and rampant crime that terrorizes every community,” Trump's campaign spokesman said.

Newsweek also contacted the Harris campaign for comment via email outside of regular work hours.

However, other major aggregators of national polls have found Harris narrowly ahead.

As of early Monday, FiveThirtyEight's national average had Harris at 48.1 percent support and Trump at 46.7 percent, while statistician Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin blog had Harris at 48.6 percent and Trump at 47.4 percent.

The aggregation of the betting odds currently speaks for Trump.

As of Monday morning, oddsmakers gave the Republican a 61.1 percent chance of winning and Harris a 37.7 percent chance.

When it comes to key swing states, Trump is currently slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, while Harris is leading in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump prevailed over Harris in Pennsylvania last week, marking the first time since July that the Republican had the advantage in the Keystone State.

Trump led Biden in the state before he dropped out of the race in July. Democratic presidential candidate Harris has held a narrow lead since then, but as of last Monday, Trump was ahead of Harris by 0.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight national average.

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